Equities took a beating on Monday as the collapse of US-Iran peace talks sent crude oil surging past $100 a barrel, rattling investor sentiment from the opening bell. The sell-off, which intensified sharply in the second half of the session, reflected a market suddenly confronted with the twin threats of imported inflation and a weakening rupee — a combination that historically squeezes India’s current account and corporate margins simultaneously.
“…selling pressure was broad-based, with most sectoral indices closing lower… the sharp correction was primarily triggered by a spike in crude oil prices following renewed geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Iran situation,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking.
The Nifty 50 ended the session down 360.30 points, or 1.49 per cent, to close at 23,815.85 — its lowest in three weeks — while the Sensex shed 1312.91 points, or 1.70 per cent, to settle at 76,015.28. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 fell 1.05 per cent and 1.13 per cent, respectively. Within the Nifty 500 universe, 382 stocks ended in the red. India VIX surged over 10 per cent to 18.5, signalling a sharp jump in market anxiety.
Trump’s Iran remarks, oil rally deepen investor anxiety
US President Donald Trump’s rejection of Iran’s peace proposal — dismissing demands around the Strait of Hormuz blockade, compensation, and sovereignty recognition as “totally unacceptable” — was the immediate catalyst. With the Strait remaining shut, Brent crude surged roughly 4 per cent to around $105.7 a barrel, deepening concerns over India’s import bill. Domestic crude futures climbed above ₹9,200.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nationally televised appeal urging citizens to avoid gold purchases, reduce fuel consumption, and defer non-essential foreign travel added another layer of concern. Markets read the message as a signal that the government is worried about mounting pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Jewellery stocks bore the brunt — Titan Company was among the top Nifty losers, while Kalyan Jewellers and Senco Gold slid steeply. IndiGo and hospitality counters also weakened on the travel advisory.
Rupee hits record low, defensive sectors outperform
The rupee hit a fresh record low, plunging nearly 1 per cent to 95.32 against the dollar in early trade, erasing recent gains. Technically, the USDINR pair now faces resistance at 95.45–95.80, with support around 94.70. On the sectoral front, Consumer Durables fell 3.7 per cent, and Realty declined sharply, while Pharma and Healthcare were the only sectors to eke out marginal gains, benefiting from their defensive character and the rupee-depreciation tailwind on export earnings.
Global markets, earnings and volatility in focus
The turbulence in emerging markets contrasted with a relatively more optimistic outlook for Wall Street. HSBC Global Investment Research on Monday raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 from 7,500, citing an 8 per cent upward revision in 2026 earnings estimates following a strong Q1 season. The bank also flagged that a broader sentiment rebound in tech and AI — combined with easing geopolitical and macro concerns — could potentially push the index past 8,000, even as it cautioned that elevated crude prices and a hawkish Fed pivot remain key downside risks.
On a relatively brighter note, AMFI data for April showed domestic mutual fund investors remained steady, with net equity inflows of ₹38,440 crore. Flexi-cap funds led with ₹10,148 crore, followed by small-cap (₹6,885 crore) and mid-cap (₹6,551 crore) categories. Total mutual fund AUM rose to ₹81.92 lakh crore.
On the global front, attention is now shifting to the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, scheduled for May 13–15, where trade, AI, Taiwan, Iran, and rare-earth supply chains are on the agenda. Domestically, Q4FY26 earnings from Tata Power, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Torrent Power, Dixon Technologies, and Max Financial Services will be closely tracked on Tuesday for sector-specific direction. With the Nifty now sitting at the lower band of its recent 23,796–24,482 consolidation range, analysts warn that a decisive break below 23,800 could accelerate a move toward the 23,500–23,150 zone. Markets are expected to remain news-driven and volatile until there is meaningful clarity on the Gulf situation.