The government’s move to sharply hike import duty on gold to 15 per cent is unlikely to dent Indian weddings significantly, though jewellers expect consumers to increasingly opt for lighter-weight designs, leading to some moderation in purchase volumes even if the overall spending in value terms remains resilient.
Industry players said wedding-related jewellery buying, deeply tied to cultural and family traditions, is expected to hold up despite elevated prices, with higher gold rates and duties likely to alter consumption patterns rather than suppress demand outright.
Suvankar Sen, MD and CEO, Senco Gold Ltd, noted that while the high-duty environment will likely lead to a moderation in overall gold imports, wedding-related demand remains structurally sound due to deep-rooted cultural traditions.
“What we are more likely to witness is a shift in consumer behaviour, with customers opting for lighter-weight jewellery, including 9kt, 14kt and 18kt jewellery, along with exchange-led purchases and more value-oriented designs to optimise budgets while continuing wedding-related buying,” he said.
Players said that while value growth for the industry may remain intact because of elevated gold prices, actual volumes could see some pressure as consumers trim quantities and ticket sizes. “The industry is preparing for at least one year of relatively high duties on gold, and we believe this could result in a 10-15 per cent moderation in gold imports over time. However, we do not see much risk to achieving our 20-25 per cent value growth guidance for FY27,” said Sen.
Auspicious dates
While a few auspicious dates seen for weddings in May, wedding-related jewellery purchases are expected to gather further momentum from mid-June onwards through the latter half of the year.
Raghav Dhir, Director of Dhirsons Jewellers, added: “Higher import duties are not going to impact purchases for wedding jewellery as that is part of the traditions and they usually do not cut back on spending. So, we are not expecting to see any major change in wedding-related demand for gold jewellery. However, non-occasion based buying may see some decline due to the general cautiousness among consumers across categories. Given the recent gold price trends, the shift towards lighter-weight jewellery is expected to further amplify.”
Jignesh Mehta, Founder & MD, Divine Solitaires, said Indian consumers have weathered several cycles of high gold prices, and wedding and engagement-related purchases have so far remained relatively resilient, although consumers are increasingly becoming more value-conscious in terms of quantity and design preferences.