The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Monday, tracking weak global market cues amid a spike in crude oil prices due to escalating US-Iran war in the Middle East.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,539 level, a discount of nearly 105 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the ended lower on profit booking, with the Nifty 50 closing below 23,650 level.
The Sensex dropped 160.73 points, or 0.21%, to close at 75,237.99, while the Nifty 50 settled 46.10 points, or 0.19%, lower at 23,643.50.
Here’s what to expect from Senex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a bearish candle on weekly charts, and is currently trading comfortably below short-term moving averages, which is largely negative.
“We are of the view that the short-term market outlook remains weak, but a pullback is likely to continue if manages to trade above 75,000. On the higher side, the 50-day SMA at 75,800 will be a key level to watch. A move above 75,800 could lead to a test of the 20-day SMA or 77,000 – 77,300,” said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
On the downside, he believes a fresh sell-off is possible only if Sensex breaks below 75,000. Below this level, it could retest 74,500. Further decline may also continue, potentially dragging the index down to 74,000 – 73,700.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a small-bodied candle on the daily chart with a noticeable upper wick, indicating selling pressure at higher levels. For the week, the index declined 2.20% and formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the weekly chart with a lower high and a lower low and a long lower shadow.
“A small red candle was formed on the daily chart with an upper shadow. Technically, this action indicates a choppy movement in the market and emergence of minor weakness from near the key resistance of 23,800 levels (resistance as per change in polarity),” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of remains choppy, and the index is expected to oscillate within a broader high low range of 23,800 – 23,200 levels for this week.
Mayank Jain, market analyst, Share.Market by PhonePe Wealth noted that the 23,250 level is now the immediate line of defense, and if Nifty 50 breaks 23,250 on a closing basis, it opens the door for a deeper correction toward 23,000.
“Friday’s high near 23,840 is the immediate hurdle. Bulls will only regain control if the Nifty 50 index manages to close and stay above the 24,000 psychological mark,” said Jain.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 418.60 points, or 0.77%, lower at 53,710.35 on Friday. For the week, the Bank Nifty index plunged 2.89% and formed a sizable bearish candle, indicating sustained selling pressure.
“Bank Nifty index is comfortably trading below its key moving averages, which are trending downward, highlighting a negative bias in the short-term structure. Meanwhile, momentum indicators suggest a sideways undertone, pointing towards the absence of a strong directional trend. Going forward, the 53,200 – 53,000 zone is expected to act as a crucial support for the index,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
According to him, a decisive break below the 53,000 level could trigger further downside, dragging the index towards 52,400, followed by 51,800 in the short term.
“On the upside, the 54,400 – 54,500 zone is likely to act as an important resistance, and only a sustained move above this range could signal a potential recovery,” said Shah.
Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd. highlighted that the Bank Nifty index has weakened significantly and is now trading below all its key short- and long term moving averages, including the 21 day, 55 day, 100 day, and 200 day EMAs, signaling a strong shift in momentum toward the bears.
“For this week, immediate resistance is placed at the 54,400 – 54,500 level. As long as prices continue to trade below this crucial zone, the overall market sentiment remains under intense pressure. On the downside, immediate support is placed at 53,100,” said Singh.
A decisive slide below this floor is critical, as it may trigger a sharper correction and move the index further down toward the 52,500 mark, he added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.