Stock markets are likely to open lower on Monday as rising tensions in West Asia, surging crude oil prices and continued weakness in the rupee weigh on investor sentiment.
The mood turned cautious globally after a drone attack on a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates intensified fears of a wider regional conflict. Investor sentiment was further shaken after US President Donald Trump warned that “the clock is ticking” for Iran, signalling that efforts to end the conflict may have stalled.
GIFT Nifty futures were trading around 23,567 at 8:07 am IST, indicating that the Nifty50 could open below Friday’s closing level of 23,643.50.
Global oil prices surged sharply following the escalation in tensions. Brent crude climbed close to USD 112 per barrel on Monday, touching a two-week high, while Asian markets broadly traded lower.
For Indian markets, elevated prices remain a major concern because India imports nearly 85% of its crude oil needs. Higher oil prices increase inflation risks, weaken the rupee and raise pressure on the country’s current account deficit.
The Indian rupee had already slipped past the 96-per-dollar mark on Friday to hit a fresh record low amid rising crude oil prices and persistent foreign investor selling.
Domestic benchmark indices also witnessed heavy pressure last week. The Nifty50 fell 2.2%, while the declined 2.7% during the week as investors remained worried about oil prices, geopolitical tensions and foreign outflows.
Foreign portfolio investors have sold Indian equities worth USD 23.52 billion so far this year, already crossing the record annual outflows seen in 2025.
Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said Indian markets are expected to open weak as global uncertainty and rising crude oil prices continue to pressure sentiment.
“Indian equity markets are expected to open on a negative note, with Gift Nifty trading around 23,539, down by 169 points, indicating weak opening cues for domestic indices,” he said.
According to Tailor, the Nifty ended slightly lower in the previous session after profit booking emerged from higher levels.
“Nifty formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating cautious sentiment and lack of strong bullish conviction at higher levels,” he said.
He added that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 45.13, reflecting weak momentum, while India VIX rose to 18.79, signalling increased market uncertainty.
Tailor said derivatives data showed strong call writing around the 23,700–23,800 levels, suggesting resistance near those zones, while immediate support for Nifty is placed around the 23,400–23,500 range.
The banking index also remained weak in the previous session.
Bank Nifty closed near the day’s low at 53,710.35, down 418.60 points or 0.77%, amid sustained selling pressure in banking stocks.
Tailor said the formation of a bearish candlestick pattern on Bank Nifty indicates cautious sentiment and continued weakness at higher levels.
“The RSI stood at 41.60, reflecting weakening momentum in the banking index,” he said.
According to him, immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed around the 52,800–53,000 zone, while resistance remains near 54,000–54,200.
Despite the weak market mood, foreign institutional investors remained net buyers in the previous session.
FIIs bought equities worth Rs 1,329.20 crore on May 15, while domestic institutional investors turned net sellers and booked profits worth Rs 1,958.80 crore.
Tailor said the broader market outlook remains cautious because of weak global cues, elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
“Although domestic markets have shown resilience in recent sessions, sustained selling pressure near higher levels indicates lack of strong bullish conviction,” he said.
He added that traders are likely to closely track global developments, crude oil prices and volatility trends in the coming sessions.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)