Stock market today: The domestic benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, opened sharply lower on Monday, 18 May, while the rupee slipped to a fresh record low, after crude oil prices surged following a drone attack on a nuclear power facility in the United Arab Emirates, escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Investor sentiment also weakened after US President Donald Trump warned that “the clock is ticking” for Iran, signalling stalled diplomatic efforts to resolve the ongoing conflict.
The Nifty 50 declined 1.1% to 23,391.9, while the dropped 1.16% to 74,374.04 in early trade.
Selling pressure was broad-based, with all 16 major sectoral indices trading in the red. The broader market also saw sharp weakness, with small- and mid-cap indices falling 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Indian rupee hit a fresh all-time low amid surging crude prices, which also pushed global bond yields higher.
Brent crude climbed to nearly $112 per barrel, marking a two-week high, while broader Asian markets declined around 0.8%.
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
Persisting macroeconomic pressures continued to weigh heavily on market sentiment. lost 2.2% for the week to settle at 23,644. Smallcap index seen profit booking after recent spectacular up move, down 4.5%. Sectorally, barring pharma & metal all major indices ended in red wherein realty, IT, auto remained the biggest loser.
Technical Outlook
Index failed to sustain intra-week recovery attempt. As a result, weekly price action price action formed a bear candle with a lower shadow, that reinforces corrective bias.
- In the upcoming volatile week, Geopolitical uncertainties, surging crude oil prices, rising US 10-year bond yields, and a weakening Rupee will likely drive near-term volatility. Hence, it is important to keep stock centric approach while sailing through earning season.
- Technically, the lack of sustainability above 50 days EMA has kept market in a prolonged consolidation phase over past four weeks. However, it is important to highlight that, amidst this rangebound activity Nifty 50 has retraced merely 50% of preceding three weeks 11% rally.
- The slower pace of retracement signifies healthy consolidation that has helped index to cool off the overbought conditions that would eventually pave the way to challenge the upper band of consolidation place at 24,400.
- For a meaningful pullback to materialize, index need to decisively sustain above the psychological mark of 24,000 as it is confluence of 50 days EMA coincided with 61.8% retracement and last week’s high.
- Hence, one should focus on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong Q4 earnings as key support is placed at 23100 being 61.80% retracement of previous move (22,182-24,601) and the price gap support from 7 April 2026.
- The Nifty Midcap index witnessed profit booking after touching fresh all-time highs while Nifty small cap snapped its six weeks winning streak wherein it rallied 25%. Both indices have seen mean reversion towards its 20 days EMA. In the process, market breadth has seen a minor deterioration over fortnight, as currently 70% of stocks within Nifty 500 universe are trading above their 50 days SMA compared to past 2 weeks reading of 72%. Meanwhile, reading of % of stocks trading above 200 days SMA remained steady at 42%, highlighting broadening of rally that eventually bodes well for durability of ongoing up move.
Key Monitorable:
1. Fed Minutes
2. Rising Crude
3. Depreciating Rupee
Stock To Buy This Week – Dharmesh Shah
Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends buying shares.
Buy Caplin Point in the range of ₹1,990-2,020. He has Caplin Point share price target of ₹2,230 with a stop loss of ₹1,875.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 15/05/2026 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.