Despite an anticipated 10 per cent boost in sugarcane yields, especially across its western belt, Uttar Pradesh’s sugar production is likely to remain stagnant at around 9 million tonnes (mt) next season (October 2026-September 2027), defying market expectations of crossing 10 mt. A reduction in the total acreage alongside an earlier start to the crushing season is expected to offset gains in the yield.
Sources said that based on the inputs from sugar mills, which keep track of the area under sugarcane in their command area, the cane acreage may be 1-2 lakh hectares lower this year in Uttar Pradesh. Even the State government data have put the provisional estimate at 28.13 lh against 28.61 lh a year ago.
However, the Union Agriculture Ministry’s data show the state has actually 36,000 hectares higher area than l 28.02 lh last year. Cane from the current acreage will be available for crushing for 2026-27 season as plants normally begin after Diwali.
Loss for farmers too
In the current sugar season that began from October 2025, the industry had initially (in July 2025) pegged sugar output in Uttar Pradesh at 10.25 mt out of an estimated area of 22.57 lh. But, latest data show sugar production in the state did not even touch 9 mt (reportedly ended at 8.95 mt). Industry sources said that there is always a gap in cane area estimate by the government and private sector.
“There will be at least 10 per cent average yield improvement this year. However, to get the maximum benefit of the yield, mills have to start crushing from November. Apart from lower recovery, which is a financial factor for sugar mills, even farmers will lose if they harvest prematurely as sugar content will be less,” said Bakshi Ram, a noted breeder credited with developing CO-0238 variety cane.
So far, the crop is in very good condition and hardly any report of any pest attack has been heard this year, he said. He also said that there is no clarity so far on any damage to sugarcane from recent floods in the rivers in some 24 districts of Uttar Pradesh.
Surplus rain
According to India Meteorological Department data, east Uttar Pradesh, comprising 42 districts, has received 85 per cent surplus rain in the past fortnight (August 26-September 8) alone, whereas overall monsoon precipitation since June 1 is 5 per cent below normal. Similarly, western region, comprising 33 districts, has received 80 per cent surplus rain in past 15 days, as against total rainfall in the season at 10 per cent above normal.
Paramjit Singh Hooda, a farmer in west UP’s Shamli district said: “only yesterday we saw a clear sky after more than 15 days. The yield will be 10-15 per cent more this year as last year the crop was affected from a pest attack and brought down the production by 30 per cent.” Hooda, who is growing cane in 5 acres, and gradually reducing the area by diversifying to other crops, said the current rate of Rs 400/quintal as announced by government is low when mills are realising over 10 per cent recovery (sugar quantity produced out of crushing cane).
From one quintal (100 Kg) cane crushed, if mills in UP realise 10.19 per cent recovery, it means production of 10.19 kg of sugar
“Accuracy of sugarcane acreage estimate is crucial for the government to decide sugar policy. The industry in July 2025 first projected gross sugar production at 34.9 mt for 2025-26 and now it has been drastically reduced to 30.9 mt. The result was neither the government could prevent diversion of juice and B-heavy molasses for ethanol on time as was done in 2023 nor it could restrict export demand. Now, it is depending on imports,” said an industry expert.