Target: ₹2,600
CMP: ₹2,265
Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) is entering a comeback phase, with India increasingly becoming a strategic global hub for Hyundai (HMC). The past five years were challenging for HMIL amid a muted 5 per cent domestic volume CAGR and sustained domestic market share loss (FY26: 12.5 per cent; FY21: 17.4 per cent), owing to a relatively lean product cycle (three/five new models during FY21-26/FY15-20), limited capacity addition (4 per cent FY21-26 CAGR; >90 per cent utilisation), and higher profitability focus (15 per cent/24 per cent FY21-26 EBITDA/EPS CAGR).
However, the next five years could mark a strong turnaround, led by the ₹45,000-crore investments reflecting India’s growing strategic importance for HMC. This will translate into a stronger product cycle (26 product actions; seven new nameplates), calibrated capacity increase (FY31: 1.1 million units per annum; FY26: 9,09,000 units per annum), deeper localisation (targets 90 per cent; FY26/FY20: 80 per cent/70 per cent), and greater integration with HMC’s global operations.
We build in volume/revenue/EPS CAGR of 11 per cent/15 per cent/16 per cent over FY26-29E. We believe that HMIL’s market share has bottomed out (expect recovery from September 2026 with the launch of Bayon-based mid-size SUV) and expect it to clock superior growth amid industry moderation (on GST-cut led high base). We retain Buy and raise TP by about 6 per cent to ₹2,600 (26x September 2028E core PER; rolled forward) from ₹2,450.