Target: ₹1,960
CMP: ₹1,907.10
Hyundai Motor India’s Q4FY26 Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed estimates by 2.5 per cent/18.9 per cent/16.8 per cent. Revenue grew 5.4 per cent y-o-y, led by volume growth, but came below estimates due to a decline in ASPs, driven by a higher share of lower-priced models such as Aura and i10. EBITDA fell 22.4 per cent.. PAT declined 22.2 per cent.
The key positive from the quarter was the management’s confident FY27E volume outlook, with HMIL guiding for 8-10 per cent domestic volume growth, implying potential market share gains. Growth is expected to be supported by the new Venue ramp-up and two new SUV launches, a localised compact EV SUV and an ICE mid-SUV above 4 metres.
. However, West Asia disruption remains a near-term risk, making export recovery and market diversification key monitorables.
Margins are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to elevated commodity prices, Pune ramp-up costs and launch-related expenses. HMIL has taken about 60-bp price hike in January, followed by a selective Venue price hike in March, with another planned in May.
We believe HMIL is entering FY27E with better growth visibility than FY26, supported by capacity availability, a stronger SUV pipeline and export resilience.
On FY28E EPS of ₹85.3, we value HMIL at a P/E multiple of 23x, arriving at a target price of ₹1,960 per share. We retain our Hold rating on the stock.