Target: ₹165
CMP: ₹102.20
NBCC continues to strengthen its position in redevelopment and PMC-led projects, with a growing pipeline of self-sustainable redevelopment mandates across Maharashtra, Nagpur, Jammu and Kashmir, and Delhi. Funding approvals, loan sanctions and regulatory clearances across key projects such as MAHAPREIT, Nagpur redevelopment and Supertech have improved execution visibility, while large redevelopment clusters are progressively moving into the tendering and contractor award phase.
NBCC reported a stable Q4FY26, with consolidated revenue of ₹4,560 crore as growth in the PMC business was offset by subdued performance in real estate and EPC. The management guided for FY27 consolidated revenue of about ₹18,000 crore and PAT of about ₹1,100 crore.
The company has a robust ₹1.3-lakh crore order-book, and appears well positioned for a sustained acceleration in execution, revenue growth and order-book monetisation over FY27-29.
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The management’s outlook is positive but we build in conservative revenue and earnings CAGR in FY26-29 at 16 per cent and 19 per cent to factor in delays in project approval. Hence, we lower earnings estimates by 14 per cent for FY27E and by 12 per cent for FY28E due to slower ramp-up across redevelopment projects than previously anticipated. We reiterate Buy with SOTP-TP of ₹165 (unchanged) on 40x FY28E P/E for the PMC business and inventory of owned landbank on NAV.