Target: ₹879
CMP: ₹679.85
Raymond Realty is transitioning from a Thane-led developer into an asset-light MMR platform, with ₹52,000 crore of development potential across ₹25,000 crore of owned land in Thane and ₹27,000 crore across eight JDAs. The key differentiator is its ability to selectively secure mature, execution-ready opportunities, enabling faster conversion from signing to launch and scaling across Mumbai without acquiring land. The strategy is already ahead of plan: JDA contribution to bookings rose from 22 per cent in FY25 to 54 per cent in FY26 and 64 per cent in Q1FY27, crossing the company’s 50 per cent target a year early.
We see Thane as the cash engine and JDA as the growth engine, with annual cash generation of ₹600-750 crore from the combined portfolio to fund further expansion. We forecast bookings/collections to clock around 24/46 per cent CAGR over FY26-29e.
We estimate debt rising from ₹1,010 crore in FY26 to ₹2,010 crore by FY29E, with D/E peaking at 0.7x, below management’s 1x threshold, before moderating as collections scale.
We initiate coverage with a Buy rating with a TP of ₹879, based on an NAV methodology. The valuation is supported by the value of the identified development portfolio and the longer-term potential of its JDA-led development franchise, with the implied 6.6x FY29E embedded EV/EBITDA.
Key risks: Delay in launches; rising competition; and higher debt.