Precious metals extended the upside last week but at a smaller scale compared with the preceding week. Gold ($4,376.80/ounce) and silver ($64.70/ounce) were up 0.8 and 1.8 per cent, respectively. Similarly, in the domestic market, gold futures (₹1,54,506/10 gm) rose 1.8 per cent and silver futures (₹2,35,924/kg) gained 1.9 per cent. Below is an analysis.
MCX-Gold (₹1,54,506)
Gold futures (Oct) rose during the first half of last week to hit a high of ₹1,55,835 last Wednesday. However, the contract was unable to decisively break out of the barrier at ₹1,55,000.
The 200-day moving average lies at ₹1,55,720 and thus, the price band of ₹1,55,000-1,55,720 will be a strong roadblock for the bulls. We expect a decline on the back of this.
A drop in price from the current level can drag gold futures to ₹1,49,000 or even to ₹1,47,000. But in case the contract breaks out of ₹1,55,720, it can rally to ₹1,60,000.
But as it stands, the likelihood of a minor price decline is high.
Trade strategy: Sell gold futures (Oct) now at ₹1,54,506 and place a stop-loss at ₹1,56,000. Book profits at ₹1,49,000. Risk-averse participants can avoid this counter-trend position.
MCX-Silver (₹2,35,924)
Silver futures (Sep), too, rallied in the first half of last week and marked a high of ₹2,41,999 before moderating to ₹2,35,924. The chart shows that the contract faces a considerable resistance between ₹2,40,000 and ₹2,42,000.
We are likely to witness a price drop, possibly to ₹2,27,000 or even to ₹2,25,000. That said, if the contract breaks out of ₹2,42,000, it can rally to ₹2,58,500.
Trade strategy: Go short if the price rises to ₹2,37,500. Target and stop-loss can be ₹2,27,000 and ₹2,42,000, respectively.