Indian benchmark indices ended a choppy session on Friday with modest losses as investors digested the Reserve Bank of India’s latest policy decision, which highlighted growing inflationary pressures and a weaker growth outlook amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
While the RBI left the unchanged at 5.25%, as widely expected, the central bank struck a cautious tone, warning that the prolonged conflict in West Asia, elevated crude oil prices and persistent supply-chain disruptions could weigh on economic growth while fuelling inflation.
Reflecting these concerns, the RBI lowered its FY27 forecast to 6.6% from 6.9% projected in its April policy review. At the same time, it raised its inflation estimate for the financial year to 5.1% from 4.6%, signalling increased pressure on prices.
Against this backdrop, investors remained cautious despite the RBI’s measures to attract foreign capital and support the rupee. The BSE Sensex settled 117 points, or 0.16%, lower at 74,243, while the NSE Nifty 50 declined 49.85 points, or 0.21%, to close at 23,366.70.
The benchmark indices have now finished lower in three of the past five trading sessions, declining 0.80% during the period and extending their losing streak to a second consecutive week.
Nifty Outlook
Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, highlighted that on the daily timeframe, the formation of a bearish candlestick pattern indicates selling pressure emerging at higher levels and reflects cautious sentiment among market participants after the recent recovery attempt.
“From a technical perspective, immediate support is placed in the 23,200–23,250 range, while resistance is observed between 23,650 and 23,700 levels. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 40.64, indicating weakening momentum and suggesting that the index continues to trade below the stronger bullish zone. The volatility index, , declined by 0.61% to close at 15.78, indicating slightly easing volatility and stable market sentiment. In the derivatives segment, notable call writing was seen at the 23,500 strike, followed by 23,600, while significant put writing was observed at 23,300 and 23,400 levels, indicating immediate support near lower levels while resistance remains positioned around higher strikes,” he added.
Bank Nifty Outlook
According to the Choice expert, from a standpoint, on the daily timeframe, the formation of a Spinning Top candlestick pattern reflects indecisiveness in the banking index, indicating a balance between buyers and sellers after recent volatility.
“From a technical standpoint, immediate support is placed in the 54,000–54,100 range, while resistance is seen in the 54,900–55,000 zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 50.15, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum and suggesting improving strength in the banking segment. Sustaining above immediate support levels will remain important for continuation of the recovery trend,” he explained.
Bagadia further noted that the recent price action suggests a mixed trading session with benchmark indices displaying divergent performance. While Nifty witnessed selling pressure after an initial gap-up opening, Bank Nifty managed to outperform and close in positive territory after recovering from intraday weakness. Sectorally, strong buying interest was visible in Media, Realty, PSU Banks and Healthcare stocks, whereas weakness persisted in Metal, IT, Cement and Oil & Gas sectors. Market breadth remained slightly negative with 1,623 advances against 1,694 declines and 94 unchanged stocks, indicating stock-specific action across the broader market.
Traders are advised to closely monitor immediate support and resistance zones, as sustained movement beyond these levels will be crucial in determining the next directional trend, suggested the expert.
Sumeet Bagadia’s stock recommendations today
Regarding stocks to buy on Monday, Sumeet Bagadia recommended these three buy-or-sell stocks: Axis Bank, Max Health and TVS Motor.
Axis Bank
Buy in Cash ₹1,272, Stop Loss ₹1,222, Target ₹1,350
Axis Bank is showing signs of resilience after a phase of consolidation and is currently trading around ₹1,272. The stock has managed to hold above its long-term 200-day EMA, indicating that the broader bullish structure remains intact despite recent volatility. The 50-day and 100-day EMAs are positioned close to the current market price, suggesting that the stock is attempting to establish a strong support base around current levels.
Technically, the recent swing low near ₹1,222 acts as a crucial support zone and serves as an ideal stop-loss level for positional traders. The RSI is placed at 48.99, reflecting neutral momentum with room for further upside. A sustained move above current levels could trigger a gap-filling rally towards ₹1,350, which remains the immediate upside objective. Volume expansion near resistance levels would further strengthen the bullish outlook.
Max Health
Buy in Cash ₹977, Stop Loss ₹920, Target ₹1050
Max Healthcare is witnessing buying interest after correcting from higher levels and is currently trading around ₹977. Although the stock continues to trade below its key moving averages, the recent price structure suggests a gradual improvement in sentiment. The formation of higher highs and higher lows from recent lows indicates that buyers are steadily accumulating the stock.
This emerging recovery pattern could act as an early signal of trend stabilization. The recent weekly low around ₹920 remains an important support zone and serves as a prudent stop-loss level for fresh positions. On the upside, ₹1,050 is the immediate target, which coincides closely with the declining 200-day EMA and could act as the first major resistance zone. A sustained move above intermediate resistance levels, supported by stronger volumes, may further strengthen the recovery trend and improve the stock’s medium-term outlook.
TVS Motor Company
Buy in Cash ₹3,384, Stop Loss ₹3,228, Target ₹3,700
TVS Motor is currently trading around ₹3,384 and appears to be stabilizing after a recent corrective phase. The stock is trading below its short-term and medium-term moving averages, indicating that the broader trend remains under pressure. However, price action suggests that selling intensity has reduced near lower levels, with the stock attempting to form a base.
The recent swing low around ₹3,228 is a key support area and serves as an important stop-loss level for positional trades. Momentum indicators are also showing early signs of improvement, with the RSI positioned near 44.92 and attempting a positive crossover, which could indicate strengthening buying interest. A sustained recovery above current levels may pave the way for a move towards ₹3,700, where previous supply zones and resistance levels are placed. Continued improvement in volume participation will be crucial for confirming the strength of this rebound.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.