Continued disruptions at three top Russian crude oil loading ports on the Baltic and Black sea due to Ukrainian drone strikes last month is expected to alter supplies to India, which can have serious repercussions for the world’s fourth largest refiner.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) April 2026 oil market report, following earlier strikes on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, Ukrainian drones targeted the Baltic ports of Ust‑Luga and Primorsk during the week of March 23rd.
Together, the three ports accounted for around 68 per cent of seaborne oil exports in 2025 shipped from Russian ports, comprising 72 per cent crude and 28 per cent products.
“Beyond Russia’s export logistics, 80 per cent of India’s Russian crude imports in 2025 originated from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk. Indian total crude imports fell by 760,000 b/d m-o-m in March (2026), and any prolonged disruption to Russian port availability could significantly affect Indian refining operations in the coming weeks,” the IEA anticipated.
At Primorsk, around 8 of 18 crude storage tanks were destroyed, while satellite imagery showed fires and heavy smoke at Ust‑Luga, affecting crude oil tanks and potentially the 160,000 barrels per day (b/d) crude splitter, it said.
The attacks halted Primorsk exports for several days, while Ust‑Luga remained offline for more than a week. Loadings at Primorsk resumed two days after the attacks and averaged 1.4 million b/d (mb/d) in the week of 6 April while Ust-Luga loadings remained 300,000 b/d below 2025 levels, it added.
“There is no pipeline connection between the two Baltic ports, requiring upstream scheduling adjustments. While re-routing crude to the Black Sea is technically feasible, only 23 per cent of volumes exported last month were Russian crude, from Sheskharis, with the remainder originating from Kazakhstan and loaded from the CPC terminal,” IEA pointed out.
During March 2026, importing countries received 4.4 mb/d of Russian crude oil, with India unloading 2 mb/d and China 1.8 mb/d. Indian crude imports rose by 930,000 b/d m-o-m after the US waived restrictions on purchases for cargoes loaded before March 5th.
An estimated 22 million barrels of Russian oil on water came onshore in India in March, and 14 million barrels in China, wiping out the volumes at sea that had built up since October 2025. In March, twelve Indian refineries processed Russian crude, compared with seven in February 2026, IEA added.
According to OPEC’s April 2026 monthly oil market report, in selected Asia (Japan, China, India, Singapore and South Korea), refinery utilization rates increased to an average of 91.08 per cent in March, corresponding to a throughput of 26.93 mb/d.
Compared with the previous month, utilization rates were down 4.9 percentage points, while throughput was lower by 1.44 mb/d. Relative to last year, utilization rates were 1.2 pp lower, while throughput was 149,000 b/d lower.