What if the is already hiding in an economist’s spreadsheet?
As football fans debate whether Argentina can defend its title, whether , or whether France can add another star to its jersey, a German economist has come up with a prediction that is turning heads across the football world.
Joachim Klement is not a football coach, scout or pundit. He is an economist. Yet his statistical model correctly predicted the winners of the last three FIFA World Cups — Germany in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022.
Now, with the , Klement’s model has produced a surprising new champion: the Netherlands.
For a country that has reached three World Cup finals but never lifted the trophy, the prediction is as bold as it is unexpected.
World Cup predictions are hardly rare. Every four years, former players, managers, bookmakers and data firms publish forecasts on who will win football’s biggest prize.
What makes Klement’s prediction different is his track record.
According to reports, his model successfully identified the champions of the last three FIFA World Cups, giving it an unusual level of credibility ahead of the 2026 tournament.
This year, the model forecasts that the Netherlands will beat Portugal in the World Cup final.
It also predicts a semi-final lineup featuring the Netherlands against Spain and Portugal against England.
If that happens, it would mark one of the biggest stories in World Cup history.
Despite producing legendary players such as Johan Cruyff, Marco van Basten, Dennis Bergkamp and Arjen Robben, the Dutch have never won football’s biggest tournament.
The Netherlands finished runners-up in 1974, 1978 and 2010 but fell short each time.
The most fascinating part of Klement’s prediction is not the result but the method behind it.
According to ESPN, the economist’s model does not focus only on football statistics.
Instead, it combines a range of economic and social indicators, including a country’s GDP per capita, population size, FIFA rankings, the cultural importance of football and an element of chance.
The idea is that successful football nations often share certain economic and demographic characteristics that can influence long-term sporting success.
Rather than trying to predict individual matches, the model attempts to identify which countries are most likely to build and sustain elite football teams over time.
In other words, Klement approaches the World Cup less like a football analyst and more like an economist studying patterns and probabilities.
The prediction comes at a time when most football conversations are focused on traditional favourites.
Argentina enter the tournament as defending champions. France remain one of the most talented squads in international football. England boast one of the deepest player pools in the world.
Spain and Portugal are also being viewed as serious contenders.
Yet Klement’s model sees
The Dutch arrive at the tournament under Ronald Koeman and with a squad that blends experienced internationals with younger talent.
While they may not be the bookmakers’ first choice, the model suggests they possess the right combination of factors needed to go all the way.
Despite the attention his forecasts receive, Klement has repeatedly warned people not to treat them as investment advice.
In fact, he has openly joked about the limitations of his model.
According to reports, the economist said anyone placing a bet solely because of his forecast is “beyond help” because football remains highly unpredictable.
“It’s completely irrational,” he said.
Klement compared World Cup forecasting to tossing a coin.
A coin may land on heads several times in a row, but that does not guarantee it will happen again on the next flip.
His message is simple: past success does not guarantee future accuracy.
The timing could not be better.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to be the biggest in the tournament’s history, with 48 teams competing across the United States, Canada and Mexico.
The expanded format is expected to create more surprises, more knockout drama and more opportunities for outsiders to make deep runs.
That makes Klement’s prediction particularly intriguing.
Football fans love underdog stories, and few would be bigger than the Netherlands finally winning a World Cup after decades of near misses.
Whether the economist’s model delivers a fourth straight correct prediction remains to be seen.
But after correctly identifying the last three champions, many fans will be watching closely to see whether football’s most unlikely forecaster has done it again.
If he has, the Netherlands could be celebrating a historic first World Cup title next month.