India will likely export at least two million tonnes (mt) of wheat, given the current developments in the global grains market, including geopolitical crisis and weather, with US production of the cereal estimated at a 57-year low.
“With hefty supplies, the (Indian) government has recently removed the wheat export ban in place since May 2023, and the country is forecast to become a net exporter, albeit small relative to global trade,” said the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In its “Grain: World Market and Trade” report released on Tuesday night, the USDA raised its export projections of Indian wheat by 1.75 mt to 2 mt from 0.25 mt last month.
The projection comes on the heels of global wheat production for 2026-27 being pegged at 819.1 mt, down 24.8 mt from the record 2025-26 crop.
Significant cuts
“The cuts are most significant among major exporters, such as the United States (-11.5 mt, -21% ), the EU (-9.1 mt, -6% ), Argentina (-6.9 mt, -25%), Australia (-6.0 mt, -17%), Canada (-5 mt, -12% ), Kazakhstan (-4.3 mt, -22% ), and Russia (-4.3 mt, -5% ),” said the USDA.
In India, feed and residual consumption is projected to increase while declining in China, the EU, Russia, and Kazakhstan. “Food, seed, and industrial consumption is forecast up mainly in India. Ending stocks are forecast to decline (globally), down 1 per cent from the prior year,” said the report.
“The geopolitical crisis, particularly the Iran war, has resulted in crude oil and fertiliser prices rising. The agri-commodity outlook is bullish for the second half of the year. It could be the year of agri commodities,” said Delhi-based exporter Rajesh Paharia Jain.
At $6.60 a bushel, wheat prices are currently hovering at a 23-month high.
Prices gain
As wheat production is projected to decline below offtake, wheat prices will rise. “US wheat prices have gained roughly $17/tonne recently due to drought conditions,” said an analyst.
Earlier, India was expected to export below 3 lakh tonnes. However, fertilizer shortage in Australia, the US, and Canada, besides a prolonged dry weather, have changed the global trade scenario. North Americal, particularly the US is going through
Projections for Indian wheat exports come at a time when there is uncertainty over production this year. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare has projected a record high of 120 mt of production. However, a survey carried out by the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India predicted at least 5 mt of production lower than the government’s estimates.
Prices below MSP
Despite this, the Food Corporation of India (FCI) has procured over 30 mt of wheat from growers through the minimum support price (MSP) scheme. Currently, the procurement is higher than a year ago. As of April 1, the FCI had 21.8 mt of wheat in its warehouses.
The government has fixed the MSP at ₹2,585 per quintal this year. Currently, prices in the agricultural produce marketing committee yards are ruling at ₹2,450. The market is poised to rise following the USDA projections.
Currently, US soft red winter wheat is quoting at $260 a tonne, while European wheat is offered at $230. In comparison, Indian wheat is quoted at $270-275.
Meanwhile, the USDA report said global wheat production is projected to drop to 819.1 mt from 843 mt in 2025-26. It anticipates wheat demand for food, seed and industrial use to increase. On the other hand, global trade is forecast to decline as exporting countries have reduced supplies.
Rice output to fall 2 mt
The USDA has projected a decline in corn (maize) and rice production, too. It has forecast global grain production to fall to 1.29 billion tonnes compared with 1.33 billion tonnes in 2025-26.
Rice production, including in India, is projected to slip by 5 mt to 537.8 mt. India’s output may decline to 150 mt from 152 mt.
On the other hand, corn production may fall by over 17 mt to 1.295 billion tonnes from 1.312 billion tonnes. However, Indian production may rise to 46.5 mt from 45 mt.