Indian equity markets are likely to open on a cautious note on Tuesday amid the fresh escalation of the Iran-US war. Gift Nifty at 24,035 signals a gap-down opening of over 150 points.
Hariprasad K, a SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, said global cues remain fragile. “The US markets saw sharp selling pressure, with the Dow correcting significantly as crude oil surged on renewed geopolitical concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. “Elevated oil prices, still holding above the $100 mark, continue to pose a macro risk for India, given its import dependence. Sustained strength in crude could weigh on inflation expectations and corporate margins, keeping risk appetite in check,” said Hariprasad.
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, while the outcome of recent state assembly elections and fresh data indicating foreign portfolio investors have turned net buyers of domestic equities offer some measure of support, the broader mood remains one of restraint. Geopolitical uncertainty and prevailing global risk aversion continue to dominate sentiment, limiting the scope for a sustained upside in the near term.
Derivative trading also signals a cautious note.
Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said from a derivatives standpoint, PCR near 0.61 suggests a cautious-to-bearish undertone, while aggressive call writing at 24,200–24,300 continues to cap upside, and the Put base at 24,000–23,800 reinforces support. Meanwhile, India VIX, which has been sustaining near 18, indicates a controlled volatility environment, supporting range-bound price action rather than trending moves.
“Structurally, until the index decisively breaks above the 24,300 resistance zone, rallies are likely to face selling pressure, making a sell-on-rise strategy more favorable. A breakout on either side of the range will be crucial to trigger the next directional move.”
While major Asian-Pacific markets are closed today, those that opened, such as Taiwan, Vietnam and Australia, are down in early deals on Tuesday.