Stating that it is “cautiously optimistic” on the overall wheat production outlook, the government on Sunday said that the output in 2025–26 remains stable and resilient, supported by increased acreage, improved agronomic practices, and enhanced varietal adoption, despite ‘localised’ weather-related impacts.
“In response to certain media reports regarding the wheat production scenario for 2025–26, it is clarified that the current wheat season may be characterized as mixed but resilient, shaped by both climatic adversities as well as strong adaptive measures undertaken by farmers,” the agriculture ministry said in a statement.
According to the government’s second advance estimate, wheat output in 2025-26 is pegged at 120.21 million tonnes (mt) as against 117.95 mt in 2024-25. As the estimate was arrived at before the unseasonal rains and hailstorms in March-April damaged the crop, the next update by the government is keenly awaited by the stakeholders amid lower procurement in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan.
The Roller Flour Millers Federation of India (RFMFI) on April 24 released its third “Annual Wheat Survey Report 2026”, prepared by private agency Agriwatch which has pegged the production at 110.65 mt, up from 109.63 mt in 2024-25. Agriwatch’s Nalin Rawal said that the production could have reached 115.7 mt, but due to the crop damage there was a drop of over 5 mt from the initial assessment.
The agriculture ministry said that the crop was sown on an estimated area of 33.46 million hectares (mh), up from 32.80 mh and there was no incidence of insect pests and diseases during the season. Early and timely sowing of wheat in the country, had led to an increase in area over the last year, it said.
“The additional 0.6 million hectares area planted during 2025-26, is expected to partially offset localized losses,” it added. This is viewed as an admission of higher losses due to crop damage compared to the gains expected from more area.
The government has admitted that unusually high temperatures in February exposed the crop to heat stress, reducing grain filling duration and yield. “Further, untimely rainfall and hailstorms at maturity in a few areas have likely caused localised damage to grain quality and yield,” it said adding “the overall production outlook remains cautiously optimistic owing to several compensatory factors”.
The ministry said that the infestation of weeds was low during the crop growth stages and there was a significant rise in early/timely sowing, which enabled the crop to escape terminal heat during grain filling. Additionally, the enhanced varietal replacement rate (VRR) has accelerated the adoption of high-yielding, climate-resilient, and disease-resistant varieties, which are better equipped to withstand heat and biotic stresses, it said.
On the other hand, the RFMFI President Navneet Chitlangia in a statement has said that the industry seeks not protection, but policy stability and dialogue for fair farmer prices, viability, and affordable consumer food.
He has demanded the government to share periodic cumulative national wheat stock data to aid informed decisions and curb distortions. He has also requested the government to provide clear OMSS pricing, quantities, and schedules via stakeholder consultations to avoid ad-hoc releases that distort markets. “Extend open export licenses without port or buyer restrictions to all wheat products, including bran. Prioritize freight support and incentives for value-added wheat products over raw wheat to boost employment, capacity utilization, and diaspora supply,” he said.
Meanwhile, the wheat procurement was lower 164.32 (lakh tonnes (lt) as of April 23, as against 183.49 lt year-ago and arrivals 19 per cent lower at 203.13 lt. The purchase in Punjab was 75.73 lt against 59.20 lt, in Haryana 65.16 lt against 56.64 lt, in Madhya Pradesh 13.19 lt against 54.09 lt, in Uttar Pradesh 4.08 lt against 5.51 lt, in Rajasthan 5.7 lt against 7.84 lt and in Bihar 17,281 tonne against 9,991 tonne.
Against the minimum support price of Rs 2,585/quintal during 2025-26 crop year (July-June), the all India average mandi (agriculture market yard) price of wheat on April 24 was Rs 2,572/quintal, which included consuming states as well, according to Agmarknet portal. But the average farmgate prices in wheat producing states on April 22 were – Rs 2,498/quintal in Uttar Pradesh, Rs 2,402/quintal in Madhya Pradesh, Rs 2,421/quintal in Gujarat and Rs 2,484/quintal in Rajasthan. But in Haryana and Punjab, farmers are able to receive MSP for their wheat due to public procurement through a strong mandi infrastructure.