A few weeks ago, I watched my portfolio bleed for days amid the ongoing West Asia war and found myself asking a question I hadn’t asked in years: should I exit the market?
I didn’t. And I’m glad I stuck to my instincts. That’s why I am sharing this.
Many will tell you that timing the stock market is key. But what does that even mean? In reality, there is no such thing as timing the market, especially at a time when .
When tensions between the US, Israel and Iran escalated towards the end of February, markets reacted instantly. Crude oil surged past $100 a barrel, a key psychological level that typically rattles import-heavy economies like India, and global equities turned volatile.
What had been a relatively steady start to the year for Dalal Street quickly gave way to sharp corrections.
Much of the anxiety is centred around the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes. It is one of those places most retail investors had barely heard of, until suddenly it started dictating the direction of their portfolios.
Over the past month, market headlines screamed that investors lost Rs 9 lakh crore in a single session. On another day, losses were pegged at over Rs 17 lakh crore.
The Sensex and Nifty were in free fall, while the India VIX, a fear gauge for the market, spiked. And it didn’t stop there. March felt like a slow bleed, markets falling almost every day, chipping away at portfolios until weeks of gains were gone.
It felt like Dalal Street was running out of gas, much like kitchens across the country .
I saw it in my own portfolio too. Over the course of a week not long ago, I was down roughly Rs 10,000, not a small amount, especially with returns already uneven leading up to this phase.
Won’t lie, it did hurt.
At one point, I even began doubting my strategy and found myself scrolling through forums, as markets around the world danced to .
But the more seasoned investors I spoke to, people who’ve lived through multiple crashes, said the same thing: this is when long-term portfolios are built.
I was still apprehensive, but I didn’t panic.
That’s when it struck me that this conflict, like every crisis before it, may have its own triggers, but the broader pattern doesn’t really change. The short-term chaos feels different each time, but the long-term equation tends to play out the same way.
Let me explain.
Every crisis follows a similar pattern. Whether it is a war, a pandemic or an oil shock, markets react first and ask questions later.
The initial phase is always the worst. Prices fall sharply, portfolios turn red, and the instinct is to act quickly to limit losses.
Selling feels like control. It feels like you are doing something. And in the short term, it even limits losses. But over time, it is rarely the right move.
If you looked beyond the headlines, there were signs this wasn’t a one-way collapse. Amid all the gloom, there were days when markets pulled back sharply. And if you stayed invested, or continued your SIPs at lower levels, you actually benefited, sometimes quite meaningfully.
Most people I spoke to, friends, family, acquaintances, kept saying the markets were in bad shape. And they were. No denying that. But I kept telling them the same thing: look for pockets of opportunity. Investing is actually simple.
You survive the bad days to benefit from the good ones. Take today, for instance. The and the Nifty 50 is trading above 24,200. That’s a sharp jump from where we were just a couple of sessions ago.
That kind of recovery tells you something important. It shows that markets are moving beyond just reacting to bad news and are beginning to reassess the situation. And that shift is becoming clearer now.
One more thing I noticed. During the sell-off, several fundamentally strong companies corrected sharply. Nothing had really changed about their businesses overnight. What had changed was sentiment.
And that’s when it started to make sense.
Once the panic settles, the same stocks that were being sold off begin to look a lot more reasonable. Not cheap for the sake of it, but fairly priced again.
I didn’t rush in. But I didn’t sit still either.
I made small, measured moves. Nothing aggressive. Just enough to take advantage of the volatility without getting carried away.
You’ve probably got the drift by now, but if you’ve made it this far, let me take a minute to explain why I didn’t stop my SIPs.
For me, it came down to this.
. When markets fall, the same fixed investment ends up buying more units. I could see it happening in my own portfolio. It didn’t feel great in the moment, especially with everything in red, but I knew it was improving my long-term averages.
Stopping SIPs at that point would have meant defeating the whole purpose.
At the same time, I didn’t go aggressive either. This didn’t feel like the moment to go all in.
Instead, I made small, measured moves. A bit of exposure to index funds, a few selective additions in blue-chip stocks, and some allocation to gold as a hedge. Nothing dramatic. Just enough to stay invested without overcommitting, and without touching money meant for short-term needs.
None of this meant the risks weren’t real. Oil prices were still elevated, and geopolitical tensions were far from settled, with US-Iran talks still ongoing. Markets could remain volatile for a while, and I was fully aware of that.
But I realised something important.
Reacting to that volatility with panic is not the same as managing risk.
When my portfolio dropped by Rs 10,000, it felt like a punch in the gut. But it also forced me to step back and ask myself why I started investing in the first place.
And the answer was simple. If it’s long-term wealth creation, then short-term volatility cannot dictate my decisions.
This is not investment advice. A financial advisor will always be better placed to guide individual decisions.
But if there’s one thing this phase reinforced for me, it’s this. Market volatility is uncomfortable, but it doesn’t last forever.
I saw that play out in real time. Just as quickly as I lost that Rs 10,000, I recovered it, and a bit more, within a week.
That’s the thing about markets. They fall fast. But they recover when you least expect it.
(Disclaimer: Koustav Das is Associate Editor, heading the business desk at IndiaToday.in. Views expressed are personal and not investment advice. Readers should consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.)