The domestic market started on a bullish note on Monday, following global cues that suggested the ongoing conflict in West Asia may soon be diffused.
According to stock market expert Sunil Shah, India will emerge as the primary beneficiary of a sharp correction in global crude oil prices.
“The key reason is that because of this [US-Iran peace talk], the oil prices have cooled off. India is the largest beneficiary. The oil prices come back to those original levels, and they remain benign for at least near to midterm, then India will be the largest beneficiary of those low energy prices. And our economic growth will be back on that higher growth trajectory. Also the worry regarding the corporate top line and the bottom line will also be blown away,” Shah told ANI.
Shah highlighted that the positive opening of market indices aligns with market expectations.
“Well, this was on expected lines that the market will open and start the week on a positive note and a bullish note. The reason being that during the weekend we saw that there are very bright and good chances that the crisis in West Asia will be diffused very soon. We’ve seen statements coming from the president of USA and other people who matter,” Shah said.
At the start of the week, global crude oil prices witnessed a sharp decline, falling over 5 per cent and dropping to levels below $99 per barrel.
The fall in oil prices came amid reports that Iran had agreed in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and dispose of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium under a developing agreement with the United States.
Shah highlighted that the retreat in crude prices directly impacts the country’s economy, as India relies heavily on energy imports.
“The reference point is crude oil prices for this market. So, as the crude oil prices go down further and further, markets will improve from there because the low energy prices will help our economy in a huge way that will boost consumption. Basically, we will not have to deal with high inflation and that will allow our economy to grow at the forecast which we had, which were predicted and made, or the prognosis was made before the Iran war,” Shah said.
Regarding external capital flows, he noted that the domestic market experienced recent outflows from foreign portfolio investors.
“In India, for quite some time in the last few quarters, we’ve seen the theme has been AI and India does not have a pure play AI and that’s the reason that the capital was going out of our country and moving to those countries in Southeast Asia and other countries where they have AI play.”
Shah believes this is the reason why the financial migration was taking place. “But I’m sure once the valuations become very attractive, the capital will come back,” Shah added.Speaking about the recent fuel hikes, Shah stated that it was expected.
“Fuel price hike was on expected lines, but as I said, if the international crude oil price is corrected, then we will not need any further hike,” Shah said .