Indian markets are likely to see another cautious day on Tuesday amid a mixed global trend. Gift Nifty at 24,410 signals a gap-up opening of about 80 points for Nifty. The US-Iran peace talks will continue to anchor market conditions.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious, volatile note today as the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran approaches its conclusion. “With the truce period nearing expiry, uncertainty has heightened around the next phase of negotiations and the outlook for further diplomatic engagement. Market participants remain focused on whether the ceasefire will be extended or if tensions could resurface, which may significantly influence near-term sentiment,” he said.
From a corporate perspective, the ongoing Q4 earnings season remains a key domestic trigger, with several major companies reporting their results. Strong earnings, particularly from heavyweight sectors such as banking and financials, could provide selective support to the indices and offset some external headwinds.
Overall, the market sentiment remains cautious. Equities are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments in US-Iran negotiations and crude oil prices, he said, adding that any signs of progress in diplomatic talks could trigger a relief rally, while a breakdown or escalation in tensions may lead to renewed selling pressure. Elevated volatility is expected throughout the session as traders closely monitor global cues alongside domestic earnings announcements.
Global cues mixed as US slips, Asia shows resilience
Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said, despite an ‘expected’ stable start, the overall setup remains highly event-driven, with volatility expected to play a central role in today’s session given the weekly expiry.
Global cues remain mixed and somewhat fragile. US markets closed lower in the previous session amid renewed geopolitical tensions following a turbulent weekend that cast uncertainty over US–Iran peace negotiations. This has kept risk sentiment cautious at a broader level. At the same time, Asian markets are showing resilience. Japan’s Nikkei is trading higher by over 400 points, while South Korea’s Kospi continues to outperform, supported by strong earnings expectations and has even moved past its previous record highs. This divergence highlights that while geopolitical risks persist, earnings-driven optimism is still providing selective support to global equities, he said.
Earnings season and derivatives expiry to drive stock-specific moves
Back home, today’s session is likely to be influenced significantly by stock-specific action as the earnings season gathers pace. Key companies in focus include HCL Technologies, Nestle India, and Tata Elxsi, all of which are scheduled to announce their results. Management commentary, particularly around demand visibility and margin outlook, will be closely tracked and could drive sectoral moves.
According to Hariprasad, with weekly expiry today, derivatives activity is expected to drive heightened volatility and add complexity to price action. India VIX, currently around 18.7, suggests that option premiums remain relatively elevated, reflecting continued market uncertainty. If volatility cools during the session, it could accelerate theta decay, leading to faster premium erosion. On the other hand, any spike in volatility, especially triggered by global developments, may lead to sharp repricing of options. This creates a challenging environment for directional trades and favours more tactical, short-duration strategies.