Indian stocks are likely to open on a cautious note as the flip-flops in US-Iran geopolitical relations continue, with both sides sending conflicting messages. Gift Nifty, which rose to over 24,800 on Friday on the news that Iran will also move ships during the ceasefire period. However, Iran immediately reversed the decision and blocked the deals, sending markets around the world into a tailspin. The shooting on an Indian ship added pressure.
Gift Nifty is currently ruling at 24,470 (730 am IST), still ahead of about 100 points over Friday’s Nifty futures closing. But analysts remain sceptical about the gains and see volatility as likely to ruin sentiment. Besides, Q4/FY26 results and outlook by India Inc will keep stock-specific action to the fore.
Analysts warn of volatility despite domestic support
Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder of Livelong Wealth, said markets are likely to witness a volatile, potentially uneven session today, with sentiment swinging between relief and renewed caution. The risk of a negative reaction remains elevated, especially if crude prices sustain their upward move. “From a domestic standpoint, earnings from heavyweights such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, announced over the weekend, are expected to provide some stability to the market. While both institutions delivered solid profit growth and met or exceeded expectations, their ability to anchor the index may be limited amid strong global volatility triggers. Their results may act as a cushion rather than a catalyst.”
Echoing similar sentiment, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious note, with renewed geopolitical tensions weighing on investor sentiment. Although a two-week ceasefire had offered some relief earlier, remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump accusing Iran of violations, along with reports of a U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel, have dented confidence in the diplomatic process and introduced fresh uncertainty.
“Adding to the concerns, oil prices have surged sharply, with an approximate 7% spike, amid the approaching ceasefire deadline, intensifying fears of supply disruptions. This escalation has reversed the recent decline in crude prices, with Brent crude now trading in the $95–98 per barrel range. These developments have dampened earlier optimism and heightened uncertainty surrounding negotiations, keeping markets on edge. Elevated geopolitical risks may lead to renewed FII outflows or reduced participation, as risk aversion increases,” he warned.
Global cues and oil prices in focus
However, global indices are in the green, gaining around 1 per cent in early deal on Friday.
According to analysts, the slowdown in FPI selling is heartening.
There are indications of change in FPI activity from recent macro trends, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited. RBI’s strong action to curb excessive speculative activity in the currency markets has reversed the sustained rupee depreciation. Rupee has strengthened from the low of Rs 95.30 to the dollar touched on 30th March to 92.85 to the dollar on 17th April.”
Rupee stability and FPI flows offer support
In anticipation of rupee stability, FPIs turned buyers, though marginally, over the last three trading days. A crash in Brent crude to around $90 on news of the opening of the Hormuz Strait will further aid the rupee in the near term, he said.
“This may create an environment where FPIs may turn buyers in India,” he said, adding, “If, along with the opening of the Hormuz Strait the conflict in West Asia also come to an end, the prospects for the Indian economy will again be restored to the pre-war levels.”
Earnings season to drive near-term market direction
According to Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart Ltd, the primary driver for the coming week will be the deluge of Q4 earnings reports, alongside a keen focus on US macro data and ongoing geopolitical shifts. The interplay between FII and DII flows will remain a critical metric for sustaining current levels.