Stock markets are set for a weak start on Monday as rising crude oil prices, fresh tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns about higher US interest rates weigh on investor sentiment.
GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,138 at 8:06 am IST, indicating that the Nifty 50 could open about 1% lower than its previous close of 23,366.70.
Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said Indian markets are likely to open sharply lower due to weak global cues and rising geopolitical tensions.
He noted that GIFT Nifty was down by more than 300 points before the opening bell, reflecting a negative start for benchmark indices.
The weak signals are in line with a broad selloff across Asian markets and concerns that global investors may continue pulling money out of riskier assets.
Here are the three key reasons why Dalal Street is likely to open lower today.
The biggest trigger for market weakness is the sharp rise in prices.
Brent crude jumped 3.5% to around $96.5 per barrel after Iran launched missiles at Israel following Israeli strikes on Beirut. The latest escalation has reduced hopes of a peace deal in the region and revived fears of supply disruptions.
The conflict has also increased concerns about the future of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he would urge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate. However, Hezbollah and Iran have vowed further responses, while Israel has warned of a renewed military campaign if attacked again.
Higher crude oil prices are usually negative for India because the country imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirements. Rising oil prices can increase inflation, widen the trade deficit and put pressure on the rupee.
Asian markets witnessed a sharp selloff as investors reacted to geopolitical risks and weakness in technology stocks.
The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index fell 3.4%, reflecting widespread risk aversion across the region.
South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 6.9%, while Japan’s Nikkei dropped 4.4%. Technology and AI-related stocks led the decline after strong gains in recent months.
The negative mood was also visible on Wall Street. US stocks fell on Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report raised concerns that the US Federal Reserve may have to keep interest rates higher for longer or even raise them further.
Higher US rates generally make American assets more attractive and reduce investor interest in emerging markets such as India.
Another factor weighing on sentiment is the growing expectation that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates later this year.
According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a Fed rate hike by December 2026 has increased to 72.3% from 45.2% just a week ago.
This has added to concerns about foreign investment flows.
Foreign portfolio investors have already sold $28.63 billion worth of Indian equities in 2026, surpassing the record annual outflows seen in 2025.
Investors remain worried about elevated crude oil prices, the economic impact of the Iran conflict and India’s relatively limited exposure to pure AI companies that have driven gains in some global markets.
The Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates unchanged on Friday and announced several measures aimed at supporting foreign inflows and the rupee.
The central bank raised its inflation forecast for FY27 to 5.1% from 4.6%.
At the same time, it lowered its economic growth estimate to 6.6% from 6.9%.
However, official data released after market hours on Friday showed that India’s economy remained resilient. GDP growth stood at 7.8% in the March quarter, supported by strong domestic demand despite global uncertainties.
According to Shah, the Nifty 50 remains technically weak as it continues to trade below all key moving averages and maintains a lower high-lower low structure.
“The crucial support zone is placed around 23,100-23,000,” he said.
A break below this zone could increase selling pressure and drag the index towards 22,700.
On the upside, 23,500 remains the first major hurdle, while 23,700 is likely to act as a stronger resistance zone.
Shah said the Nifty formed a bearish candle on the daily chart in the previous session and failed to hold above the 23,400 level, which had acted as support earlier.
Momentum indicators also remain weak.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 40.64, indicating limited buying strength, while the MACD continued to remain in negative territory.
Derivatives data also points to caution among traders.
The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR) fell to 0.83 from 1.00, suggesting that bullish sentiment has moderated.
OPTION DATA SHOWS KEY LEVELS
Option chain positioning indicates immediate support near the 23,000 strike.
At the same time, significant call writing is visible around the 23,500-23,700 zone, reinforcing it as a major resistance area.
According to Shah, the market continues to face selling pressure on every rise and remains trapped in a corrective trend.
“The lower high-lower low formation remains intact, indicating that bears continue to dominate unless the index decisively reclaims the 23,500-23,700 zone,” he said.
Unlike the broader market, Bank Nifty has shown relative strength.
The banking index extended gains for the fourth consecutive session and closed above its 20-day exponential moving average.
Shah said momentum indicators for Bank Nifty have improved, with the RSI rising to 50 and generating a positive crossover.
Immediate support is placed around 53,700-52,700, while resistance is seen near the 55,000 mark.
The market setup suggests a weak opening for Indian equities as investors grapple with rising oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and fears of tighter US monetary policy.
While Bank Nifty continues to show some resilience, the broader Nifty remains under pressure.
According to Shah, the immediate trading range for the Nifty is likely to remain between 23,000 and 23,500, and a decisive move beyond either level could determine the market’s next direction.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)