India’s steel demand is projected to grow 7.9 per cent to 172.4 million tonnes (mt) in 2026 and accelerate marginally to 8 per cent in 2027, reaching 186.2 mt, as infrastructure spending, robust private real estate activity and manufacturing expansion sustain consumption, according to the World Steel Association (worldsteel).
India will remain the world’s fastest-growing major steel market, even as global demand stagnates in 2026 amid a prolonged downturn in China’s property sector and geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia, the industry association said in its October Short Range Outlook released on Monday.
The forecast for India reflects broad-based demand growth, with infrastructure-led construction continuing to be the key driver. Strong private real estate demand, healthy manufacturing activity and an expanding pipeline of renewable energy projects are expected to provide additional support.
The expansion of manufacturing capacity is also lifting steel demand from electrical and mechanical machinery segments, while the automotive sector is benefiting from domestic demand, export momentum and policy support.
Global demand muted
Worldsteel expects global steel demand to remain virtually flat at 1,722 mt in 2026 before growing 1.7 per cent to 1,752 mt in 2027. The association has lowered its 2026 outlook from the modest growth projected in April and cut its 2027 growth forecast from 2.2 per cent.
The downward revision is largely attributable to China, where steel demand is now expected to contract 2 per cent in 2026, as the property investment downturn persists and infrastructure investment remains in negative territory. The contraction is expected to narrow to 1 per cent in 2027.
China’s manufacturing sector continues to record growth, supported by exports, but this has not been sufficient to offset weakness in real estate and infrastructure.
In contrast, steel demand outside China is expected to grow 1.5 per cent in 2026 before accelerating to 4 per cent in 2027, supported by a recovery in industrial activity across developed economies and continued momentum in developing markets.
Infra, clean energy
The Indian outlook is underpinned by demand across construction, capital goods and automobiles. Continued infrastructure development and private-sector investment are expected to sustain steel consumption, while renewable energy projects add to demand for steel-intensive equipment and structures.
The growth trajectory also highlights the divergence between India and China, the world’s two major steel-consuming markets. While India is expected to maintain high single-digit demand growth over the forecast period, China is likely to remain in contraction as its property market adjusts.
However, worldsteel cautioned that the global outlook remains exposed to risks from continuing instability in West Asia and disruptions in energy markets. Although the initial impact on global economic activity has been less severe than anticipated, the capacity of economies to absorb further shocks is diminishing.
The outlook is based on data available as of early September 2026, the association said.