India’s overall kharif (monsoon season) acreage is expected to remain resilient amid predictions of a deficient monsoon. However, yields will depend on three factors — spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, pest and disease management and fertiliser availability. This is despite adequate availability of water, which will facilitate timely land preparation and sowing activities across major agricultural regions, according to a research report by Crisil.
Historically, El Niño has posed significant risks to India’s agriculture and water security. Since 1950, 7 out of 16 El Niño years resulted in below-normal monsoon and widespread drought, making it a closely monitored phenomenon by India Meteorological Department (IMD) authorities, the report said, adding the 2026 kharif season will be under the influence of El Niño conditions.
Pointing out that deviations in rainfall during the June-September monsoon season will have significant implications for agricultural production in India as the period shares 70-80 per cent of annual rainfall, the report said that the IMD forecast indicates a predominance of below normal rainfall conditions across most of the country.
M.P. cotton area to rise
However, as per IMD’s release, the probabilities of normal to above-normal rainfall are largely restricted to the western Himalayan region (primarily Ladakh and parts of Jammu and Kashmir), parts of the north-east and some isolated pockets of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Odisha.
“Amidst anticipation of below normal rainfall conditions farmers will be prompted to make more strategic crop choices guided not only by the rainfall outlook but also by relative profitability, procurement support and prevailing market conditions,” the report said.
As the overall maize area is set to decline, the direction of crop substitution will vary from state to state, said Pushan Sharma, lead author of the report. For instance, the shift is towards paddy in Punjab, soybean in Rajasthan, chilli and cotton in Telangana, and ragi in southern Karnataka. But, in Madhya Pradesh, the largest grower of soyabean, the cotton acreage is expected to increase due to shifting from both maize and soybean, he said.
Food output risk
In 2025-26, India’s maize output was at record 55.09 million tonnes (mt), up 27 per cent from 43.41 mt in 2024-25. The government has also fixed a lower target of 52.50 mt for 2026-27.
According to another report by ICICI Bank, there is a significant risk to food production outlook this year due to below normal monsoon in northwest, central and southern regions. As high as 40 per cent of total crop production in the country is concentrated in the Monsoon Core Zone, which is likely to see lower rainfall coverage this year, it said. Rain-fed crops such as pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and spices could be impacted, it added.
ICICI Bank further observed that since irrigation for coarse cereals stands at 19-42 per cent of total sown area, it makes them highly vulnerable. In case of pulses, most of the production is seen in Central India (48per cent of total), followed by Northwest (27 per cent) and south peninsula (14 per cent), and these three regions are predicted to have below normal rainfall. “With the higher irrigation coverage for paddy, the delayed or below normal rains should ideally have lesser impact on the crop sowing,” it added.
Likely major deficit States
“As of May 29, reservoir storage levels across the country remained healthy, standing 19 per cent above the normal storage and marginally (1 per cent) higher than the corresponding period last year. Adequate availability of water is expected to facilitate timely land preparation and sowing activities across major agricultural regions,” Crisil said.
Despite three-fourths of the kharif-sown area being projected to receive below-normal rainfall, the impact on early season crop establishment may remain relatively limited, the Crisil report said.
Major agricultural states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka are expected to witness rainfall deficits. However, reservoir storage remains comfortably above normal storage across key regions — at 44 per cent higher than normal in the western region where 48 per cent area under assured irrigation, 34 per cent in the northern region (where 65 per cent area irrigated), 20 per cent in the central region (76 per cent irrigated) and 6 per cent in the southern region (52 per cent area irrigated).
Moisture stress vulnerability
On expected yield, it said that July is primarily associated with crop establishment and vegetative growth, August and September coincide with flowering, fruit setting, pod development and boll formation stages, making crops increasingly vulnerable to moisture stress as the season progresses. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall will remain the key determinant of final crop outcome.
It has also said that higher temperatures and uneven rainfall in the first half of season are expected to intensify pest and disease outbreaks across crops such as chilli, cotton, soyabean, pulses and vegetables. Besides, urea stocks were 71.58 lakh tonnes (lt), diammonium phosphate (DAP) 22.35 lt, muriate of potash (MOP) 12.46 lt and complex fertilisers 57.56 lt as on April 27, 2026.
“Despite these levels, availability is expected to be tight for urea and DAP, with inventories falling short of the projected demand of 120-125 lt in Urea and 30-35 lt in DAP, during May-August,” it said.