The prospects of a normal monsoon have dimmed. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) now expects rains at 90% of normal levels, downgrading its April forecast. If it materializes, 2026 would be the driest year since 2015.
How will deficit rains affect the economy and food prices? Will a strong El Niño prolong the strain beyond the monsoon season, which ends in September? Mint explains.
What is the forecast?
In its updated long-range forecast released Friday, the IMD said rainfall during the June–September monsoon season is likely to be 90% of the long-period (50-year) average (LPA), down from 92% projected in April. Rainfall is considered normal when it falls in the 96–104% range.
says there is an 84% chance that monsoon rainfall will be below normal. Northwest India is expected to be the driest region, with rainfall below 92% of LPA. June rainfall—when kharif sowing begins—is also seen at 92% of LPA.
is critical for India, delivering about 75% of annual rainfall. It replenishes reservoirs, recharges groundwater and underpins irrigation, drinking water supply and hydropower generation.
June is also expected to be hotter than normal across most of the country, with above-normal heatwave days likely in several states, including Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Odisha.
So, will 2026 be the driest in recent years?
That is the likely scenario, though actual rainfall will depend on multiple factors. If the forecast holds, 2026 would be the driest in 11 years. The last consecutive drought years were 2014 and 2015, when rainfall stood at 88% and 86% of LPA, respectively.
Two key will shape outcomes this year. El Niño—warming of equatorial Pacific waters that often weakens India’s monsoon—is emerging, though its eventual strength remains uncertain. It is also expected to persist into next year.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—the temperature difference between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal—is the other factor. A positive IOD, with warmer waters in the Arabian Sea, can offset some El Niño effects. The IMD expects neutral IOD conditions through this monsoon.
When will the monsoon arrive?
The southwest monsoon typically reaches Kerala around 1 June, marking its official onset. This year, it is likely to miss that date.
In 2025, the monsoon made an early landfall on 24 May; in 2024, it arrived on 30 May. Both years recorded above-normal rainfall. In 2023, when rainfall was below normal at 94% of LPA, onset was delayed by a week. In 2015, when rainfall fell 14% short of normal, the monsoon arrived on 5 June.
Will deficit rains hit food production?
Much depends on the strength of El Niño. August and September are critical grain-filling months, and extended dry spells can weigh on yields.
India currently holds ample food grain stocks such as rice, cushioning near-term supply risks. But pulses and oilseeds remain more vulnerable, as they are largely rain-fed and India relies on imports for a chunk of its requirement.
Even so, agriculture has become more resilient than a decade ago. In 2023, when rainfall was 94% of LPA, kharif output held steady year-on-year. By contrast, in 2015, when rainfall was 86% of normal, kharif food production fell 2.3%.
A weak monsoon can also affect the rabi (winter) crop cycle by reducing soil moisture and lowering reservoir levels.
What about food inflation and other impacts?
Deficit rains can intensify heatwaves, adding volatility to prices of perishables such as fruits and vegetables. Imported inflation risks also rise if global cooking oil prices harden, as El Niño can disrupt palm oil output in Indonesia and Malaysia.
It may also weigh on India’s ethanol blending programme, which depends heavily on maize and sugarcane.
Beyond agriculture, a hotter monsoon can lift power demand, reduce hydroelectric generation and trigger drinking water shortages. Localised crop failures can also lead to distress migration. After the 2015 monsoon failure, railways had to supply drinking water to parched regions in Maharashtra and Rajasthan.