Emkay Global has retained its Nifty 50 target of 29,000 for March 2027 as it remains constructive on Indian equities on expectations of improving earnings growth once the US-Iran war eases. The target implies an upside potential of nearly 23% from Tuesday’s close.
In its latest India Strategy report, Emkay Global highlighted that while near-term volatility may persist due to the prolonged Middle-East conflict and continued pressure on global energy markets, India’s domestic macroeconomic resilience, improving earnings trajectory and policy support continue to offer a strong foundation for long-term growth.
The brokerage firm has retained its FY27 Nifty EPS estimate at ₹1,230, with earnings growth expectations holding at nearly 13%.
The report noted that Indian equities have recently lost some valuation support, with the currently trading at around 19.2x FY27 forward earnings, close to its five-year long-term average valuation.
However, Emkay Global believes that any sharp correction driven by global concerns should be viewed as a tactical buying opportunity rather than a structural risk to India’s long-term growth outlook.
“While global geopolitical developments and elevated may continue to create intermittent volatility, India’s structural growth drivers remain intact. Earnings resilience, policy support, easing domestic inflationary pressures and ongoing capex investments continue to provide a strong foundation for Indian equities,” said Seshadri Sen, Head of Research & Strategist Emkay Global Financial Services.
He believes any near-term market weakness should be viewed as an opportunity for long-term portfolio positioning.
“As external risks moderate, India remains well placed to deliver strong earnings growth and sustained economic expansion over the medium term,” he added.
Emkay Global believes that markets are still under-pricing the potential earnings recovery expected over FY27 and FY28. The report noted that despite prevailing concerns, the earnings growth outlook for Indian corporates remains robust, with expectations of nearly 14% growth over the next two financial years.
According to the brokerage, this creates a favourable risk-reward opportunity for investors willing to look beyond near-term volatility and focus on India’s structural growth drivers.
The report further added that a potential diplomatic resolution to the ongoing and normalization of crude oil supply routes could significantly improve market sentiment and trigger a revival in consumption-led growth.
“Once energy prices stabilize, the combination of easing inflation, supportive monetary policy and continued domestic capex could drive a stronger rebound in economic activity and equity markets,” the report noted.
Seshadri Sen indicated that the rupee would bounce back once the situation returns to normal and the Strait starts operating as before.
The brokerage remains overweight on sectors such as discretionary consumption, materials, industrials and real estate, while maintaining an underweight stance on financials, energy, healthcare, staples, telecom and technology in the near term.
Key Risks
A key concern highlighted in the report is the ongoing geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, particularly the prolonged closure of the , which has now remained shut for over eleven weeks.
Emkay’s macroeconomic scenario analysis indicates that if Brent crude sustains at $100 per barrel, India’s current account deficit could widen to 2.4% of GDP compared with the pre-shock baseline estimate of 1.3%.
At the same time, GDP growth could moderate to 6.3% from the baseline estimate of 7%, while CPI inflation may rise to 4.6%. In an extreme scenario where crude oil prices surge to $130 per barrel, GDP growth could decline further to 5.5%, while inflation may rise to 5%, significantly increasing pressure on policymakers and household consumption.
Emkay Global stated that sustained high energy prices create a “four-way drag” on the economy by impacting inflation, corporate profitability, government finances and consumer spending simultaneously.
Despite these near-term risks, Emkay Global remains optimistic about India’s broader economic recovery trajectory. The report emphasized that several domestic policy measures continue to provide meaningful support to growth and consumption.
These include income tax cuts, GST reductions and cumulative RBI rate cuts of nearly 125 basis points since February 2025, all of which are expected to support liquidity, boost discretionary spending and revive private sector investment.
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