The Indian stock market is likely to open flat on Wednesday, 1 July, tracking global market cues.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a tepid start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,994 level, a discount of nearly 16 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Tuesday, the extended losses amid the monthly derivatives expiry, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 23,900 level.
The Sensex dropped 249.70 points, or 0.33%, to close at 76,478.67, while the Nifty 50 settled 80.50 points, or 0.34%, lower at 23,865.75.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50, and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex formed a small bearish candle on daily charts and non-directional intraday activity on intraday charts, indicating indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears.
“We are of the view that the intraday market texture is non-directional; perhaps traders are waiting for either side to make a breakout. On the higher side, 77,000 would act as a crucial resistance level. A successful breakout above 77,000 could push up to 77, 500 – 77,700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
On the flip side, if Sensex falls below the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 76,300, he expects selling pressure to accelerate, and below the same, the index could retest levels of 75,800 – 75,500.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, significant call writing was observed at the 23,900 and 24,000 strikes, while put writing was concentrated at the 23,900 and 23,800 levels, suggesting immediate resistance around the 24,000 mark while support remained near the lower strikes.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, reflecting persistent selling pressure throughout the session.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart with minor lower shadow. Technically, this market action signals weakness in the market with range bound action. The broader high low range of 24,200 – 23,800 is intact for the Nifty 50 index. Having declined from the upper range recently, Nifty 50 is expected to bounce back to the lower range in the short term,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the immediate support for is at 23,800 – 23,750, and a sustainable move above 24,100 could open more upside in the near term.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd. noted that the Nifty 50 index found strong support near its 50-DMA at 23,840 and witnessed a sharp rebound from those levels.
“On the upside, it continues to face resistance around its 100-DMA at 24,130, and a decisive close above this level would confirm a meaningful breakout. Momentum indicators continue to support the positive bias, with the MACD maintaining a buy crossover above the zero line and the RSI holding above the 50 mark, indicating sustained bullish momentum,” said Jain.
He believes the broader technical structure remains constructive, and the buy on dips strategy remains intact as long as the Nifty 50 index sustains above its short-term 21-DMA, placed at 23,690.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 184.45 points, or 0.32%, lower at 57,542.90 on Tuesday, forming a third small bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low, signaling consolidation amid stock specific action.
“Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,100 – 57,000 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 56,600, followed by 56,200 in the short term. On the upside, the immediate resistance for is placed in the 58,000 – 58,100 zone,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Bajaj Broking Research highlighted that the Bank Nifty index needs to break above and sustain above last week’s high to trigger a fresh up move towards the 59,200 level, being the 138.2% external retracement of the previous decline from 57,456 to 52,783. Failure to move above last week’s high is likely to keep the index consolidating within the 57,000 – 58,500 range.
“The lows of the last two weeks are almost identical around the 57,000 mark, making it a crucial short-term support level. Going forward, the overall bias remains positive, and we expect the Bank Nifty index to regain positive momentum over the upcoming sessions, hence the current breather should be used as a buying opportunity,” said the brokerage firm.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.