The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a muted note Monday, tracking weakness in global markets as renewed escalation in the US-Iran war kept investors cautious.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a tepid start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,089 level, a discount of nearly 13 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Thursday, the ended higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 holding above 24,000 level.
The Sensex gained 109.25 points, or 0.14%, to close at 77,100.47, while the Nifty 50 settled 34.35 points, or 0.14%, higher at 24,056.00.
The domestic on Friday on account of Muharram.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex gained 0.38% last week, forming a High Wave candle on the weekly chart for the second consecutive week, highlighting indecision among traders and investors.
“On the downside, Sensex has been supported near the 50-day SMA or 76,200, while facing consistent selling pressure near the 77,800 – 78,000 resistance level. For positional traders, 77,000 would act as an immediate support zone. Above this level, could retest 77,800. A successful breakout of 77,800 could push the index towards 78,400 – 78,700,” said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
On the flip side, he believes below 77,000, Sensex could slip to 76,200, and further downside may also continue, potentially dragging the index to 75,700.
Nifty Options Data
On the Nifty options front, maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is at 24,200 then 24,000 strike, while maximum Put OI is at 24,000 then 23,900 strike. Call writing is seen at 24,200 then 24,250 strike, while Put writing is seen at 24,100 then 24,200 strike.
“Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 23,700 to 24,500 zones, while an immediate range between 23,900 to 24,300 levels,” said Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty has formed a shooting star pattern on the daily chart, warranting some caution at current levels. For the week, the Nifty 50 index rose 0.18% and formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, indicating indecision as the index continues to consolidate within a broader sideways range.
“A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with a long upper shadow. Technically, this market action signals a rejection for the bulls at the crucial overhead resistance. The market breadth was weak on Thursday, with broad market indices having settled with minor loss,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the near-term trend of remains positive amidst broader range movement.
“Having failed to surpass the crucial overhead resistance of 24,200, one may expect further consolidation or minor dip by this week. Immediate support to be watched at 23,800. A sustainable move above 24,200 could open more upside in the near term,” Shetti added.
Riyank Arora, Associate Vice President – HNI & Derivatives, Hedged.in noted that the Nifty 50 index continued to hold above the important 24,000 mark, indicating that the short-term trend remains positive.
“Immediate support is placed near 24,000 – 23,950, followed by a stronger support zone around 23,850. On the upside, resistance is seen at 24,100 – 24,150, followed by 24,250. A sustained move above these levels could pave the way for further upside,” said Arora.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 26.70 points, or 0.05%, higher at 58,177.05 on Thursday, forming a small-bodied candle with an upper wick, suggesting some profit booking at higher levels. The index gained 0.85% last week and formed a High Wave candle on the weekly chart, indicating indecision at higher levels.
“Bank Nifty index continues to trade comfortably above its short-term as well as long-term moving averages, which are trending upward — signalling a positive undertone. Momentum indicators and oscillators also point towards strength, with the daily RSI and Stochastic oscillators positioned firmly in bullish territory,” said Sudeep Shah, Head- Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Going forward, he believes the 58,700 – 58,800 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance, and a sustained move above 58,800 could trigger a sharp rally towards 59,500, followed by 60,200 in the near term.
“On the downside, the 57,500 – 57,400 zone is expected to provide strong support for the index,” added Shah.
Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd. highlighted that the Bank Nifty index remains firmly above its key moving averages, reinforcing the positive trend, while the RSI at 66 reflects sustained buying strength without entering extreme overbought territory.
“Following the breakout above the crucial 57,000 level, the overall structure remains constructive. As long as the Bank Nifty index sustains above this breakout zone, any dip toward 57,500 – 57,600 should be viewed as a buying opportunity. Immediate resistance is placed at 58,700, the recent weekly high, and a decisive breakout above this level could drive the index toward 59,500,” said Singh.
According to him, the preferred strategy in the Bank Nifty remains buy on dips.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.