Equity benchmarks closed marginally higher on Monday, but a late-session sell-off and repeated failure to breach the 24,500 mark on the signalled that the market remains in a consolidation phase, with volatility firmly back in play.
The Nifty 50 ended at 24,364.85, up just 11.30 points or 0.05 per cent, after touching an intraday high of 24,480.65 — only to retreat under selling pressure near the 24,500 resistance zone. The BSE mirrored the trend, closing at 78,520.30, a marginal gain of 26.76 points. The session’s narrow range and indecisive candle formation on the charts reflect a market pausing after a sharp recent rally.
Gainers and losers
The early optimism was fuelled by strong Q4 earnings from banking heavyweights. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and YES Bank all reported steady profit growth, lifting PSU Banks and financial stocks in the first half. PSU Bank and Media indices were the standout sectoral gainers, with Mahabank rising 2.8 per cent and SBI climbing 2.2 per cent. However, IT, Realty, and Chemical sectors dragged, with PIIND falling 3.6 per cent and Sonasoftware dropping 2.8 per cent.
Trent and JSW Steel emerged as the top Nifty gainers, while Jio Finance and Hindalco were the session’s notable losers.
Broader markets, however, told a different story. Both the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 ended in the red. Of the Nifty 500 universe, 315 stocks closed lower, and market breadth skewed firmly toward declines — a signal that the frontline index gains masked widespread selling pressure underneath.
Three consecutive sessions of FII buying had helped sustain sentiment in recent days, but that tailwind showed signs of fading. “Recent data shows domestic institutional investors turning net sellers, while foreign investor activity remained only marginally positive — pointing to evolving liquidity dynamics in a stressed environment,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Geopolitical sway
Geopolitical developments dominated the afternoon trade. The US Navy’s seizure of an Iranian cargo vessel stoked fresh fears of disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude oil sharply higher. Brent crude moved back above $91 per barrel, while domestic crude futures surged over 6.5 per cent to trade above ₹8,250. India VIX spiked to around 18.8, its sharpest move in recent sessions.
The rupee, which had gained in the prior two sessions, came under renewed pressure. USD/INR moved back toward the 93.2 level as dollar demand picked up on risk aversion. Spot USD-INR finds support at 92.60 and faces resistance at 93.40.
In commodities, gold dipped marginally to around ₹1,43,876 per 10 grams ($4,813.30/oz), up 0.58 per cent on the day, while silver outperformed with a 2.17 per cent jump to ₹2,40,057 per kg ($80.31/oz).
The broader macro backdrop adds another layer of complexity. Bajaj Finserv AMC noted in its April outlook that Brent crossing $100 per barrel — a scenario now back in discussion — could add 30–40 basis points to inflation. The RBI, which held the repo rate at 5.25 per cent at its last meeting, raised inflation projections while trimming its FY27 growth forecast to 6.5–6.7 per cent. “…fixed income markets are entering a phase where stability in yields will be driven more by domestic fundamentals than transient global shocks,” said Siddharth Chaudhary, Head of Fixed Income, Bajaj Finserv AMC.
Technicals
On the equity side, “…large-cap equities offer valuation comfort and relative stability in volatile conditions…for smallcap exposure, a disciplined SIP approach is recommended to navigate near-term volatility,” said Sorbh Gupta, Head of Equity, Bajaj Finserv AMC.
Looking ahead, the 24,200–24,230 zone is expected to be Nifty’s key support, while 24,480–24,500 remains the immediate resistance. A convincing move above 24,500 on volume could open the door toward 24,650. For Bank Nifty, which closed at 56,582, resistance sits at 57,000–57,100, with a breakout potentially targeting 57,600 and 58,200. Q4 earnings flow, crude oil trajectory, and ceasefire developments in West Asia will be the dominant triggers for the week ahead.