Global market today: Market sentiment across bourses is expected to remain cautious, as renewed and the resulting rebound in crude oil prices continue to cloud investor sentiment. Adding to the cautious backdrop, growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer are weighing on risk appetite across emerging markets.
On the trigger that may dictate the global markets today, including the Indian stock market, Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money, said, “Crude oil remains a key monitorable for domestic markets, with WTI trading in the $86–$87 per barrel range as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep concerns over energy supplies elevated.”
The Enrich Money expert said that global market cues remain mixed and predicted the US jobs report will be the next major global catalyst, with investors closely watching the data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, Treasury yields and broader global risk appetite.
Global markets heatmap
Here’s the heatmap of the global market today:
US stock market
US equities fell on Monday, the last trading day of August, after the US and Iran traded fire for the first time in a month, even as the major averages still closed out the month with solid gains. The S&P 500 slipped 0.33%, the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.12%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.70%, dragged lower by losses in Goldman Sachs and Alphabet. U.S. Central Command confirmed it had struck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island on Sunday, the first publicly acknowledged U.S. strike on Iranian positions since late July, with Iranian state media reporting that Tehran had retaliated against U.S. bases in Jordan.
Despite the pullback, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq still posted their first monthly gains since May, rising 2.6% and 3.9%, respectively, while the Dow notched its fifth straight monthly gain. U.S. crude climbed above $85 a barrel on the fresh hostilities, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since January 2025.
Asian market today
Asian markets are trading with a cautiously mixed tone this morning as the region weighs the weekend flare-up in US-Iran hostilities. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has slipped 0.24%, while South Korea’s Kospi is down by 0.38%. Hing King’s Hang Seng index is down by nearly 1.20%, while the Aiwan index went up 1.28%.
In the Chinese stock market, the Shanghai index fell 0.17%, the DJ Shanghai index lost 0.36%, and the China A50 index dipped 0.37%.
European stock market
European equities inched lower on Monday as the fresh U.S.-Iran military strikes pushed oil prices and bond yields higher, even as the Pan Euro STOXX 600 ended with a fifth straight monthly gain. Germany’s DAX dropped 1.17%, the most among regional indexes, ahead of German inflation data that could offer clues on the ECB’s rate path, with investors largely having priced in a September ECB rate increase.
What does it mean for the Indian stock market?
The chart is oscillating around 24,185, around 100 points above yesterday’s spot Nifty close of 24,080. However, the index is around 50 points below the previous close of 24,226.
Vaishali Parekh, Vice President — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, believes the may have a flat-to-negative start on Tuesday, as the Gift Nifty live chart is oscillating above yesterday’s spot Nifty close, but below the previous close.
Nifty 50 to Sensex today: Outlook for the key indices
Speaking on the outlook for the Nifty 50 / Sensex today, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said, “We believe that the short-term market outlook remains weak, but if the market manages to trade above 24,000/76,600, then we could see a quick technical pullback from the current levels. On the higher side, it could bounce up to 24,200-24,300 / 77,300-77,500. However, below 24,000/76,600, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If it falls below this level, it could slip to 23,850-23,800 / 76,300-76,000.”
On the outlook for the Bank Nifty today, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “The Bank Nifty index closed with a long bullish candlestick, supported by strong buying during the closing auction session. Technically, the index has closed at its falling trendline resistance while sustaining above its crucial 50-DMA and 200-DMA. The RSI has also entered a bullish crossover, indicating improving momentum. However, as the sharp move was largely witnessed during the closing auction session, a follow-up buying session is essential to confirm the sustainability of today’s breakout attempt. Immediate resistance is placed at 58,200, while support is seen at 57,300.”
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