New Delhi: Heavy south-west monsoon rainfall has caused rivers across North-East India to swell, threatening to disrupt hydropower generation, coal transportation and the movement of agricultural produce, according to several officials.
The disruptions could have wider consequences for the rest of the country, where power demand remains high amid persistent heat and an uneven monsoon, while higher logistics costs and supply bottlenecks risk adding to inflationary pressures.
While the region accounts for about 6GW of India’s 48GW of installed hydropower capacity, coal remains the backbone of the country’s energy sector, accounting for 228.5GW, or 42%, of the total installed power generation capacity of 537.2GW.
The 24 June cloudburst in Arunachal Pradesh’s Keyi Panyor district damaged houses in a staff colony of North Eastern Electric Power Corp. Ltd (Neepco) and the nearby village of Poosa, before debris flowed into the Ranganadi dam, which feeds the 405MW Ranganadi hydropower project.
“The debris went through a small channel known as the Poosa river locally to the dam, and in the morning of 24 June, as a cloudburst hit houses, trees and other infrastructure, the machines (turbines) of the Rangadnadi project had to be stopped. None of the three turbines is currently operational,” said a government official on condition of anonymity.
To be sure, it could take 15-20 days to restart a single turbine, according to the official.
Other hydropower projects in the region have also activated flood-control measures. NHPC Ltd’s Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project recently released 10,000 cu. m per second of water under its flood moderation protocol, according to another government official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.
Most hydropower projects now have flood-moderation mechanisms that enable them to temporarily retain excess inflows and release water at a controlled rate, even during periods of heavy rainfall.
“There is a 15m-high flood-moderation provision in Lower Subansiri. In the case of the planned 11GW Upper Siang project, it is as high as 90m. Whenever the silt is over 5,000 parts per million, operations need to be closed, or turbines can get damaged,” the official added.
India recorded a peak summer power demand of 270.8GW this year.
Threat of coal supply
Any disruption to coal production and transportation could raise freight and logistics costs while complicating the power supply situation, as thermal power plants hold coal inventories of about 45 million tonnes, enough to meet just over 14 days of demand, according to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).
“Sustained recovery in production and supply remains critical to maintain adequate buffer stocks. Further decline from the current level could lead to an inability to meet any significant surge in peak demand. While stocks remain below the normative level of 24 days, they are materially higher than that of September 2023,” said Ankit Jain, vice president, co-group head, corporate ratings, Icra.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast continued rainfall across North-East India over the next week.
Arunachal Pradesh is likely to witness fairly widespread rainfall from 29 June to 2 July, before it eases to isolated to scattered showers on 3-4 July. Assam and Meghalaya, along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura, are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall from 29 June to 4 July.
Overall, the IMD has projected below normal rains this monsoon, and seasonal rainfall is expected to be around 90% of the long-period average.
Mint‘s queries emailed to the spokespersons of ministries of agriculture and farmers’ welfare, power and coal, state governments of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, and NHPC, Neepco and Coal India Ltd remained unanswered.
Inflationary pressures
The agriculture sector is also feeling the strain, with floods damaging standing crops in several districts and disruptions to transport networks delaying the movement of perishable produce to wholesale markets.
The twin impact of lower output and higher freight costs could weigh on farm incomes and tighten supplies of select commodities.
India’s retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May from 3.48% a month ago. Food inflation, a key constituent of the Consumer Price Index, stood at 4.78% under the new series, up from 4.20% in April.
The flooding comes as the kharif sowing season gathers pace across the country. Paddy, the region’s principal kharif crop, is expected to bear the brunt, with prolonged waterlogging threatening newly planted seedlings. Vegetables, maize and horticultural crops have also been affected in pockets where fields remain submerged, said another official on the condition of anonymity.
“The floods have caused localized disruptions to the agriculture sector, particularly for key spice crops. The primary impact has been on harvesting schedules, transportation and movement of produce from farms to aggregation and processing centres, resulting in temporary supply constraints and price volatility in certain markets,” said Vicky Dodani, co-founder and chief executive of Agrizy, a business-to-business agrifood-tech platform.
The final impact on kharif production will depend on how quickly floodwaters recede and whether farmers can undertake replanting.
“Floods in the northeastern region are likely to weigh on paddy average and yield, with excessive rainfall and waterlogging damaging crops across key growing areas. While the full extent of losses will become clearer after floodwaters recede, the disruption could trim overall productivity if conditions persist,” said Sudhir Panwar, farm policy expert and former member of Uttar Pradesh planning commission.