Cheap valuations on some of the AI sector’s biggest names may look like a bargain, but according to one markets research firm, cited by Business Insider, they could be a warning that investors are losing faith in the data centre boom that has powered the artificial intelligence rally.
Valuation paradox: cheap is not safe
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote in a note on Wednesday, reported by Business Insider, that rather than opportunity.
Investors typically award growth companies higher valuations because of their expected future earnings.
Essaye’s point, as relayed by Business Insider, is the inverse: when AI stocks trade cheaply despite strong growth narratives, it suggests the market doubts that earnings potential will ever be realised.
Four stocks, one signal: the numbers
Business Insider‘s report cited four examples to illustrate the pattern.
yet trades at 21 times forward earnings.
Micron Technology has surged 770 per cent but trades at just 10 times forward earnings.
Broadcom is up 51 per cent, trading at 24 times forward earnings.
SanDisk has climbed an extraordinary 4,490 per cent over the same period, yet its forward earnings multiple sits at only 14 times.
For context, the S&P 500 as a whole trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.5, meaning several of these AI-linked names are valued more conservatively than the broader market despite their outsized gains.
Cancelled orders: the domino warning
Essaye warned that the consequences of an quickly through the supply chain. “Think of it this way: GOOGL (to use one as an example) cancels building 10 data centers because it’s going to cost too much money and the return isn’t there,” he wrote.
“That will result in massive order cancellations at NVDA, MU, AVGO, SNDK, etc., because no one needs the chips, networking, memory, or processor power,” he added.
Oracle’s slide: an early signal
As an example of investor unease already playing out, Essaye pointed to Oracle, whose shares have fallen by about 25 per cent since the start of June as the company has continued to pour money into AI infrastructure.
The decline, in his reading, illustrates how quickly the market can punish heavy AI capital expenditure if returns are not seen to follow swiftly enough.
Dot-com echoes: a cautious comparison
Essaye was careful to stop short of calling a market top, but said the dynamic at play has a clear historical precedent in the bubble that burst in 2000. “To be fair, this fear has been around for several months, and it isn’t appearing yet. However, it’s not without precedent because this is exactly how the dotcom bubble burst,” he said.
“While people connected to the internet, their connection wasn’t nearly as profitable as quickly as everyone assumed,” he continued. “Because of that, the buildout stopped.”