MUMBAI: As India’s clean energy push accelerates, electricity is increasingly being generated far from where it is consumed—across solar parks and windy coastlines. Moving that power efficiently has turned high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission into a critical enabler.
Hitachi Energy India’s move to a fresh all-time high of ₹29,900 per share on Monday highlights growing investor interest in the power transmission space, and raises a key question: how much of the sector’s growth is already priced in?
For investors, that interest has already translated into a sharp rerating. Over the past year, GE Vernova T&D India has surged 176%, while Hitachi Energy India has rallied 115%. Siemens Energy India, by contrast, has gained a more modest 11%.
The question now is less about the strength of the theme and more about what is left to play for: has the easy money been made, or can earnings keep pace with valuations?
Cycle intact
The structural case remains intact. India’s HVDC transmission market, valued at $3.86 billion in 2025, is projected to grow to $6.31 billion by 2031, rising from $4.19 billion in 2026 at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.55%, according to Mordor Intelligence.
As renewable capacity expands, long-distance is becoming indispensable, underpinning a multi-year grid investment cycle.
Within this, the near-term beneficiaries appear clear. A large section of the market expects Hitachi Energy India and GE Vernova T&D India to capture the immediate upside from HVDC ordering.
Amit Anwani, vice president-research at PL Capital, believes that Hitachi Energy and GE Vernova India are best placed to gain immediately from the ongoing boom in the HVDC space.
Siemens, on the other hand, may take a couple of years to start seeing meaningful benefits. That’s largely because the company has stayed away from bidding for LCC-based projects, or line commutated converter systems, choosing instead to focus on VSC, or voltage source converter, technology, an area where it has strong expertise and which it sees as the future of HVDC, he highlighted.
In HVDC systems, LCC is the older, cost-efficient technology suited for large, stable grids, while VSC is the newer, more flexible and future-ready technology ideal for renewables and complex .
Exports are emerging as a second leg of support. According to Anwani, Energy’s export share has climbed to around 27% in FY25 (from 20% in FY21), while GE Vernova India is also at roughly 27% in FY25 (from 22% in FY21). In his view, this shift helps offset the volatility in domestic order inflows, with export orders providing a steadier, more predictable revenue stream.
Order books, too, point to sustained demand visibility. GE’s backlog rose to ₹14,380 crore in the December quarter from ₹13,110 crore in the previous quarter. Hitachi Energy is sitting on a record-high order backlog of ₹29,872 crore as of end of December 2025 quarter. Siemens Energy’s last disclosed order book stood at ₹16,200 crore as of September-end.
Valuations stretched
Even so, valuations are beginning to do the heavy lifting.
Parikshit Kandpal, senior vice president-research at HDFC Securities, noted that Siemens is currently trading at about 40 times estimated FY28 earnings, while Hitachi commands a steeper valuation of around 64 times. Meanwhile, Bloomberg data shows that GE Vernova trades at 58.73 times its estimated FY28 earnings.
Kandpal flagged a potential upside trigger for Hitachi; any reduction in royalty payments to its parent could meaningfully lift margins.
At present, Hitachi pays around 5-7% of its revenue as royalty, significantly higher than its peers. In comparison, Siemens pays less than 1%, giving them a structural cost advantage, he added.
He also pointed out that Siemens currently enjoys best-in-class margins, backed by strong parent support, which puts it in a sweet spot within the sector. In his view, this positioning could help Siemens narrow the valuation gap with Hitachi over time.
“We believe India’s Power T&D cycle is one of the few pockets of growth with proven order wins – where Hitachi Energy is one of the key beneficiaries in both HVAC and HVDC orders,” said Subhadip Mitra, executive director, Nuvama Institutional Equities.
However, at current market price, the market is already factoring in rising Ebitda margins and one more potential HVDC order for Hitachi Energy resulting in peak earnings per share (EPS) by FY30, he pointed out.
According to an April 9 note by JP Morgan, the brokerage has kicked off coverage with an overweight stance on Hitachi Energy and GE, while maintaining a neutral view on Siemens. Its core thesis is straightforward: India’s high-voltage power equipment makers are in the early stages of a decadal upcycle, as grid infrastructure scales up to keep pace with the sharp acceleration in renewables.
For now, the setup is finely balanced. The demand cycle is strong, order visibility is intact, and the long-term case for HVDC remains compelling. But after a sharp rally, returns from here are likely to depend less on the theme itself and more on execution—fresh order wins, export momentum, and margin delivery.
GE trails its peak by 2.7%, while Siemens remains 8.5% below its lifetime high.