Benchmark indices opened in positive territory on Friday morning, with the rising 167.71 points, or 0.23 per cent, to trade at 74,527.72 against its previous close of 74,360.01, having opened at 74,629.94. The gained 47.95 points, or 0.20 per cent, to trade at 23,464.50 as of 9.20 am, compared to its previous close of 23,416.55 and an opening of 23,478.95, even as a cautious undertone gripped Dalal Street ahead of the ’s monetary policy decision.
All eyes are on the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, which is widely expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25 per cent. “The MPC is likely to hold rates with a guidance of a rate hike later in the year to combat inflation, which is expected to rise in H2 FY27,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “RBI is likely to revise the GDP growth for FY27 downward and CPI inflation upward in the context of the energy shock and its implications.” The policy outcome is being closely tracked by investors in banking, real estate, and consumer discretionary sectors, all of which are sensitive to interest rate movements.
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Gainers and losers
Tech Mahindra led gains on the Nifty50, rising 2.05 per cent to ₹1,517.80 from its previous close of ₹1,487.30, on volumes of 1,99,206 shares. HDFC Life Insurance advanced 1.40 per cent to ₹581.80 against a previous close of ₹573.75, while Apollo Hospitals added 1.08 per cent to ₹8,338.50 from ₹8,249.00. Bajaj Finserv climbed 1.06 per cent to ₹1,727.90 from ₹1,709.80, and Mahindra & Mahindra gained 1.04 per cent to ₹3,047.40 from ₹3,016.10. “The formation of a bullish candlestick pattern reflects accumulation at lower levels and improving market sentiment,” noted Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
On the losing side, Wipro was the sharpest decliner, falling 4.03 per cent to ₹196.09 from its previous close of ₹204.32, with heavy volumes of over 1.23 crore shares worth ₹23,919.76 lakhs changing hands. Tata Steel declined 1.24 per cent to ₹207.95 from ₹210.57, while Hindalco dropped 1.22 per cent to ₹1,111.90 against a previous close of ₹1,125.60. Trent fell 0.80 per cent to ₹2,815.00 from ₹2,837.60, and Coal India shed 0.74 per cent to ₹478.10 from ₹481.65. The weakness in metals reflects broader global pressure on commodity-linked sectors.
Global movements
remained elevated and volatile, adding to macro concerns. August Brent futures were trading at $95.46 per barrel, up 0.45 per cent, while July WTI crude stood at $93.22, up 0.19 per cent. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, June crude oil futures were at ₹8,918 against a previous close of ₹8,842, up 0.86 per cent. The spike followed Hezbollah’s rejection of a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, which disrupted ongoing US-Iran peace negotiations. Continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is putting upward pressure on India’s import bill and adding to inflationary concerns.
“The most likely policy action is a hawkish hold — RBI would hold rates without any change but would send a hawkish message that inflation is set to rise,” said Dr Vijayakumar. “If the RBI decides to act now with a 25 basis point rate hike, that will move banking stocks sharply upwards, since they would benefit from rate hikes. However, a rate hike would be negative for interest-elastic segments like automobiles and real estate.”
Asian markets remained under pressure, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling over 1.5 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI declining nearly 6 per cent, weighed down by a rotation away from technology stocks. Foreign Institutional Investors remained net sellers for the seventh consecutive session on June 4, offloading equities worth ₹4,447 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors extended their buying streak to a thirteenth consecutive session, absorbing ₹4,360 crore in equities. “Sustained foreign outflows continue to act as a key headwind for domestic equities,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered wealth-tech firm, adding that “any dovish signals from the RBI are likely to support sentiment, while a more hawkish stance could weigh on market performance.”
Technicals
Technically, the Nifty faces immediate resistance in the 23,450–23,550 zone, with support at 23,250–23,150. “For bulls, the 23,500 level will act as an immediate breakout zone. Above this, the market could move towards the 50-day simple moving average at 23,680,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. Bank Nifty, which closed at 54,307.85 on Thursday, faces resistance at 54,400–54,500 and support at 54,000–53,800. “Bank Nifty is expected to maintain its recovery bias as long as it sustains above the 54,000 support zone,” Tailor added.
“The market remains largely driven by global news flow, with geopolitical developments and international market cues continuing to influence short-term direction,” said Gaurav Udani, Founder of ThinCredBlu Securities. “Traders should remain cautious and focus on key levels, as the next meaningful move is likely to emerge from a breakout of the current support-resistance range.”