Rising oil prices will impact inflation and interest rates: Nilesh Shah

In an exclusive interview with India Today, Nilesh Shah, Managing Director at Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company and a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, addressed the recent market downturn and the Prime Minister’s call for austerity. Shah explained that the market correction is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions, triple-digit oil prices, and continuous Foreign Portfolio Investment outflows, rather than domestic panic. He emphasised the severe macroeconomic impact of the global oil supply shortage, stating, “Rising oil prices will impact our inflation and hence interest rates.” Shah advocated for immediate corrective actions, including reducing unnecessary fuel consumption and monetising India’s massive existing gold reserves instead of merely delaying purchases. Furthermore, he highlighted that India’s vulnerability to oil shocks, combined with high market valuations and the lack of domestic artificial intelligence investment opportunities, has accelerated foreign capital withdrawal. Despite strong foreign exchange reserves, Shah warned that India must strategically manage the ongoing geopolitical crisis, potential monsoon disruptions, and the emerging AI challenge to sustain economic growth.

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