The Indian rupee is expected to remain under pressure on Thursday, holding near its all-time low, on persistent oil-linked headwinds that have lingered for weeks.
Headlines related to the Iran war emerging from US President Donald Trump’s visit to China will steer oil prices and spillover effects would influence the rupee, traders said.
The rupee is expected to open in the 95.70 to 95.80 range, traders said, after settling at 95.7050 per US dollar on Wednesday, when it hit a lifetime low of 95.7950.
Brent crude was largely steady near $106 a barrel with investors awaiting a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the Iran war in focus.
While Trump has said he may not need China’s help to resolve the 11-week long war, he is expected to seek Xi’s support.
The key question is whether the meeting will yield any progress on the Iran conflict, ING said in a note.
Some hope China could exert pressure on Tehran to strike a deal with the US and allow energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz to resume, it said.
Any relief from the meeting on the oil front would buoy the rupee, which has been under mounting strain from persistently high crude prices. The pressure is evident in the prime minister’s call to curb non-essential travel and gold imports to conserve foreign exchange.
India has raised import duties on bullion to contain the trade deficit, which could widen further due to higher oil imports and lead to a significant expansion in the current account deficit.
Nomura said in a note that more policy measures are likely in the coming weeks and months, including steps to discourage imports such as electronics, tighter rules under the liberalised remittance scheme, which allows residents to take up to $250,000 out annually, and the potential issuance of a diaspora bond.