New inflation figures released by the US government have raised expectations for a higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustment () increase in 2027.
Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, said, as reported by CNBC, that theCOLA may increase to 4.2% amid “sharply rising” gasoline, energy and fresh produce prices. This projection is up from the 3.2% COLA estimate for 2027 that Johnson had forecast last month.
The prediction is based on April consumer price index data released on 13 May. The data show that the broad consumer price index rose 3.8% over the past 12 months, the highest increase since May 2023, amid a faster-than-expected increase in prices for certain goods and services.
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What is the projected Social Security raise for 2027?⌵
New forecasts suggest a higher Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027. Independent analyst Mary Johnson predicts a 4.2% increase, while the Senior Citizens League has raised its projection to 3.9%.
Why might Social Security’s COLA increase in 2027?⌵
The COLA is expected to rise due to sharply increasing prices for essentials like gasoline, energy, and fresh produce. Social Security benefits have lost purchasing power since 2016, and these increases aim to help beneficiaries cope with rising living costs.
How are Social Security payments determined?⌵
The maximum monthly Social Security benefit depends on retirement age. Those who delay claiming until age 70 and consistently earn at or above the taxable maximum income can receive the highest possible benefit of $5,181 per month.
Which Social Security beneficiaries are seeing increased income?⌵
Some beneficiaries are experiencing increased incomes due to the repeal of the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO) in January 2025. This change has led to average monthly increases of $360 for some, and up to $1,000 for others.
When are Social Security payments typically issued?⌵
Social Security benefits are generally paid on Wednesdays. Recipients whose birthdates fall between the 1st and 10th of the month receive their payment on the second Wednesday, those born between the 11th and 20th on the third Wednesday, and those born after the 20th on the fourth Wednesday.
At the same time, the nonpartisan advocacy group ‘Senior Citizens League’ has raised its 2027 COLA projection to 3.9%, compared with the 2.8% increase it had estimated in April, CNBC said.
Why Social Security’s COLA could rise in 2027?
The upgraded COLA estimates come as Americans continue to grapple with rising living costs. Prices for essentials such as home heating oil, gasoline, tomatoes, coffee and fresh vegetables have climbed sharply over the past year, Johnson said.
According to estimates from the Senior Citizens League, Social Security benefits have lost 13.7% of their purchasing power since 2016. To make up for that decline, benefits would need to rise by 15.7% — equal to about $295.85 more per month for the average recipient.
How is Social Security payment decided?
The maximum monthly Social Security benefit varies significantly depending on . The highest possible benefit of $5,181 per month is available only to individuals who consistently earn at or above the taxable maximum income and who delay claiming until age 70.
Those who retire later in life have higher maximum benefits. For 2026, those who retired at 62 have a maximum benefit of $2,969, while those who wait until full retirement age (67) have a maximum benefit of $4,152, and those who retire at 70 have a maximum benefit of $5,181, as per the Social Security Administration.
Some beneficiaries see income increase
Owing to a major rule change last year, some Social Security beneficiaries are seeing their incomes increase. In January 2025, the Social Security Fairness Act repealed two provisions – the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO), which had reduced or eliminated benefits for over 2.9 million public servants.
Therefore, some beneficiaries saw an average increase of $360 per month. Others saw a monthly change of as much as $1,000, the Social Security Administration said.