Indian benchmark indices opened lower on Monday, 13 July, as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened investor sentiment. Concerns intensified after Iran claimed to have closed the Strait of Hormuz following a fresh exchange of missile and drone attacks with the United States, sending crude oil prices sharply higher.
At around 9:15 IST, the Nifty 50 declined 0.69% to 24,039.40, while the BSE Sensex fell 0.78% to 76,963.35.
The weakness was broad-based, with all 16 sectoral indices trading in negative territory. The broader market also came under pressure, as both the Nifty Midcap and Nifty Smallcap indices slipped around 0.6% each.
Investor sentiment remained cautious after US and Iranian forces exchanged fresh missile and drone strikes over the weekend. Iran said it had targeted US military facilities across Gulf states and reiterated that it had closed the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of potential disruptions to global oil supplies and higher inflation.
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
Nifty 50 snapped four weeks winning streak and settled the volatile week on a muted note at 24,206, down 0.25%. Broader market defied the benchmark move by gaining 1% wherein midcap index clocked a fresh all-time high. Sectorally, Realty extended its gains along with revived traction in beaten down sectors like consumer discretionary and IT. Meanwhile, FMCG and PSU Bank extended breather.
Technical Outlook
- Nifty 50 Index began the week on a positive note, but faced sharp early-week volatility amid revived geopolitical tensions. Consequently, Nifty 50 retreated from the 200-day EMA and the April high of 24,600. However, sentiment improved in the final two sessions as continued diplomatic talks eased fears, allowing Nifty 50 Index to trim weekly losses. The weekly price action resulted into high-wave candle with wicks on both ends, indicating heightened volatile week.
- Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the Nifty 50 demonstrated resilience by holding its 50-day EMA near 23,800 which reaffirms underlying strength. Going ahead, the index is expected to regain upward momentum and target the previous swing high of 24,600 in the coming weeks.
- Bank Nifty which carries 33% weightage in Nifty 50 has formed a higher base formation above it’s long term 200 days EMA and witnessed a golden cross (50 days EMA crossover its 200 days EMA), indicating structural improvement which can help to lead the rally and assist Nifty 50 to surpass key hurdle of 24,600.
- Structurally, Nifty 50 has been oscillating in 1,500 points range (24,600-23,100) over past three months. A decisive close above 24600 would validate a solid higher base formation and unlock the next leg of medium-term rally.
- We expect volatility to remain elevated as we enter the Q1FY27 earning season. Hence, focus should be on accumulating stocks on dips backed by strong earnings as key support is placed around 23,600 levels.
- The US Small cap Index (Russell 2000) has been trading in the vicinity of All Time High after breaking out of 4 years consolidation. Mirroring the buoyancy in the global broader markets, Nifty midcap index reclaimed its All-Time High levels after 6 weeks hiatus. While small cap is just 1.5% away from All Time High.
- The current up move in the broader market is supported by significant improvement in the market breath. As the reading of % of stocks above 200 days SMA (Nifty 500 Universe) improved to 53% from six weeks back reading of 43% that augurs well for continuation of outperformance going ahead.
Key Monitorable
- Inflation print for India and US
- Any positive development on geopolitical front and resultant cool off in crude oil prices
- Q1FY27 earnings
Stock To Buy This Week – Dharmesh Shah
Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends buying , and .
Buy Shriram Finance in the range of ₹1,022-1,044. He has Shriram Finance share price target of ₹1,134 with a stop loss of ₹1,008.
Buy Brigade Enterprise in the range of ₹560-574. He has Brigade Enterprise share price target of ₹608 with a stop loss of ₹539.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 10/07/2026 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.