Las Vegas, monikered ‘sin city’ for its casinos and strip clubs, launched an iconic ad campaign in 2003 to boost tourist inflows. The city assured visitors it knew how to keep a secret: “What happens here, stays here.” That tagline underwent a tweak later: “What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.”
Some weeks ago, a climate scientist referred to this phrase while explaining a natural phenomenon, albeit with more dread than wonder: El Niño. The Spanish term literally means ‘The Little Boy’. Peruvian fishermen coined the term centuries ago in deference to Christ Jesus. For, during the Christmas of some years the ocean waters would turn unusually warm and their catch would reduce. Fishermen would take this time off to repair their nets and be with family.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a natural cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—off the coast of Peru in South America—that has been occurring for thousands of years. Some years, the ocean waters are warmer than usual; in others, they are cooler. The warm phase is known as the El Niño. The colder one is called La Nina.
Climate forecasters diligently track a rectangular patch of the Pacific, spanning some six million square kilometres, also known as the Niño3.4 region, measuring sea-surface and sub-sea surface temperatures. Because temperatures in this patch of the ocean are a predictor of weather events in faraway locations. An El Niño in the eastern Pacific may lead to a drought in parts of South Asia, including India, and increased rainfall in parts of South America. The Horn of Africa gets wet while Australia dries out.
Unlike with Las Vegas, what happens in the tropical Pacific does not stay in the tropical Pacific. The impact of a persistent 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer-than-usual ocean water temperature—the accepted metric to announce an El Niño—can be felt thousands of miles away.
A family in rural Maharashtra may not have clean water to drink, let alone bathe for days, all because some distant patch of the Pacific is warmer by a notch. And believe it or not, how warm this patch gets by November of 2026 can foretell if someone in a tony Delhi neighbourhood would have to crank up her air conditioner more than usual during the summer of 2027.
Blowin’ in the wind
The ‘Little Boy’ is now taking shape in the Pacific. Will he cause a rainfall deficit in India? The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a worrisome 10% shortfall, as compared with the long-period or 50-year average (LPA), for the ongoing monsoon season.
The monsoon, which runs from June to September, was late by a few days, making landfall in Kerala on 4 June. Till 10 June, the deficit stood at 27%. That’s a wide shortfall, but not a worrying number yet. It will be, if the deficit does not reduce in the coming weeks and if rains are poorly distributed across regions and over time.
Farmers begin planting in June and July as rains arrive in their regions. After making landfall in June, the monsoon moves northwards, covering the entire country by early July.
Will the 2026 El Niño, which some forecast models warn could be the strongest in more than a century, worsen the prognosis for India? If rains turn out to be deficient, will it impact crop yields and food prices? In other words, can a ‘Super’ El Niño make essential grocery items like tur dal (pigeon pea)—used to make popular dishes like sambar and dal fry—‘super’ expensive?
It’s not just about food. During the previous strong El Niño year, 2015–16, pockets of India faced an acute drinking water crisis. Water had to be supplied to parched regions such as Latur in Maharashtra by enlisting the services of the Indian Railways. Will 2026 match or surpass those distressing memories?
Globally, worries began around March with the growing chatter that a ‘Super’ El Niño is on its way. Forecasting agencies do not use the term ‘Super’—but the term began trending on social media.
The USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the leading agency tracking and forecasting ENSO events, categorizes El Niño strengths as weak, moderate, strong, and very strong. When sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are at least 2 degrees Celsius or higher than normal, the El Niño is considered to be very strong. In popular parlance, a ‘Super’ event has come to mean a temperature spike of 2-3 degrees or more.
India is better prepared to handle a deficit monsoon than it was a decade ago, when it faced consecutive years of drought in 2014 and 2015, says Siraj Hussain, former agriculture secretary, who oversaw India’s drought management in those years. “Irrigation access has greatly improved since 2015… but a lot depends on the distribution of rainfall. If the deficit is concentrated in irrigated areas, the impact will be less. But if rain-fed areas like north interior Karnataka or Marathwada in Maharashtra receive less rainfall, crops like pulses, oilseeds and cotton may take a hit.”
“You’ll have to wait till mid- to end-July for a clearer picture,” Hussain adds. “In the worst-case scenario, even big cities like Mumbai and Hyderabad may face water shortages. It’s too early to say how this may pan out.”
The agriculture sector is now more resilient to deficit rains than it was a decade or two back. For instance, food production in FY24 dipped by a mere 0.8% on-year following a 6% rainfall deficit in 2023, thanks to improving access to irrigation. More than 60% of India’s food production area is now irrigated, as per the agriculture ministry, compared with around 40% in early 2000s.
Even so, the government is not taking things lightly. Earlier this week, Union agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the government has identified 197 districts as being most vulnerable to the El Niño phenomenon. “The concern about El Niño is always on my mind 24×7,” Chouhan told news agency PTI, adding that his ministry has drawn up state-wise contingency plans.
The emphasis is on adopting area-specific and crop-specific strategies in the most vulnerable regions, the minister said earlier in June, following a review meeting. The strategies include timely advice and prompt assistance to farmers and sowing the right seeds—drought-resistant varieties.
‘50-50 chance’
Since 1951, 12 out of 17 El Niño years coincided with ‘below-normal’ monsoon rains in India, shows a reading of historical rainfall data from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune. The IMD considers rainfall to be ‘below normal’ when the shortfall is 5% or more compared to the normal. A deficit of more than 10% was considered a ‘drought’ until 2016, when the IMD changed the terminology to ‘deficient.’
Since 1951, there have been six instances of a very-strong El Niño. But only in half of these years did India record a rainfall deficit of 10% or more. “So, there’s a 50-50 chance of 2026 turning out to be a drought (or deficient) year,” says G.P. Sharma, president—climate and meteorology, at Skymet, a private forecaster.
Besides, the strength of an El Niño event does not correlate strongly with the degree of monsoon deficit, adds Sharma, a former Air Vice Marshal and head meteorologist at the Indian Air Force. This means a weak El Niño event can accompany a severe rainfall deficit—as happened in 2002, when the rainfall deficit was a staggering 22%. Conversely, rains were normal in 1997 despite a very-strong El Niño event.
So, how monsoon 2026 will play out is not certain. The IMD has assigned a 60% probability to the monsoon season running a deficit of 10% or more.
Also, there are climatic factors that can nullify the impact of a strong El Niño event. Particularly, Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD—the sea surface temperature difference between the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. A positive IOD, with warmer waters in the Arabian Sea than in the Bay of Bengal, can offset the negative impact of an El Niño. That is what happened in 1997 when the monsoon was at 102% of normal despite a very strong El Niño.
But a positive IOD is unlikely in 2026. “We are expecting neutral IOD conditions during the monsoon season with less possibility of a positive IOD,” says D. Sivananda Pai, senior meteorologist and former head of the Long-Range Forecasting Division at IMD. “The El Niño is emerging and forecasting models suggest a moderate to strong event peaking by November-December. But remember, forecasts are not set in stone… nature is not deterministic,” he adds.
“It’s a little like cricket,” Pai explains. Think of a strong El Niño as a terrific pace bowler. The star bowler can falter if the pitch is not favourable. Because other weather metrics like the IOD and presence of low-pressure systems play a role too. “Besides, India is in a better position this year. Deficit rains in 2026 will come on the back of consecutive years of surplus rains in 2024 and 2025.”
The warning: ‘Fuel on fire’
Yet, official warnings have landed. “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a video statement on 2 June, which accompanied an update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
As per the WMO, rising sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are currently fed by unusually warm sub-surface conditions, with temperatures exceeding 6°C above average, generating a reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming.
Countries, the WMO appeals, should prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which may exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall, and raise the risk of heatwaves, both on land and in oceans.
“El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed,” warned Guterres, the UN Chief.
The El Niño this year is only setting in now and it is expected to peak towards the end of the year. As per a 14 May update from the Climate Prediction Centre of the NOAA, there’s a 2-in-3 chance (or more than 66% probability) that the El Niño will be strong or very strong.
In addition, there’s a 96% chance that the El Niño will continue through December up to February 2027. It is because of this spillover effect that 2027, and not 2026, could end up as among the warmest years on record. The last El Niño event in 2023–24 was one of the five strongest on record, which is why 2024 became the warmest year since recordkeeping began.
A few days after the WMO warning was issued, another alarm bell dropped on 6 June. This one came in the form of a graph from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)—looking like a decorated plume. Forecasts of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific suggest that temperatures could rise between 2.8 degrees and over 4 degrees above normal by the end of 2026. Which means El Niño 2026 could be the strongest on record. The ‘Super’ territory, so to say.
Could it match or surpass historical highs, like the one seen in 1877-78 that led to widespread famines in India, Brazil and China, in which millions died? That’s a possibility now. But the impact will be unlike anywhere close to what happened 150 years ago. The world is more prepared, with social safety nets and greater resilience of crops and livestock than it was in 1877.
A ray of hope
For now, a moderate rainfall deficit poses little or no risk to the main kharif (monsoon) crop of rice, because of surplus stocks with government agencies. But that comfort is missing for pulses and oilseeds—India’s import bill for these food items stood at over $23 billion in FY26. In a way, the risk facing India partially comes from beyond its borders: El Niño-induced low rainfall in southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, which are major suppliers of palm oil to India, can push both international prices and India’s import bill higher.
The kharif planting season is expected to begin on a stable footing, supported by favourable pre-sowing conditions, Crisil Intelligence said in a note on 4 June. Healthy storage levels in reservoirs, which are 19% higher than normal, will limit the impact of rainfall deficit in the planting months.
But deficit rains in the second half of the season (August and September), as forecast by the Met office, and when the El Niño is likely to intensify, pose a productivity risk. Then most crops will be in critical grain formation stages. Warmer conditions and uneven rains can also fuel pest and disease outbreaks, Crisil warns.
The other risk to food inflation may arise from short-duration vegetable crops, where prices are more volatile than cereals—because of their perishability. Unavailability of water and high heat can lead to lower production of vegetables and a spike in prices.
How are farmers preparing? “I will stick with soybean because it needs less water,” says Abhishek Raghuvanshi, a farmer from Vidisha district in Madhya Pradesh, who aborted an earlier plan to switch to rice (before the official monsoon forecast arrived). “Farmers in my neighbourhood are likely to plant less maize and rice (which are water-intensive cereals) this year. We are also opting for shorter-duration varieties, which are better suited for dry conditions,” he adds.
But despite the forecast of an impending deficit, Raghuvanshi is upbeat about one aspect. “After a prolonged period of low crop prices hurting farm incomes, it will be good to see wholesale commodity prices firm up… soy prices are already rising. That’s the bright side of a drought.”
Raghuvanshi’s enthusiasm typifies the Indian farmer’s attitude to life: even in the worst of times, there is a ray of hope.