On a late June afternoon, Raja Chourey is a bluster of emotions. A farmer in his 50s, Chourey manages a fertile patch of land in Narmadapuram district of Madhya Pradesh. The farm, burrowed next to a forested hill, is a short distance from the revered Narmada River which originates in and courses through central India.
Beginning in April, a series of unfortunate events hit Chourey in quick succession.
A chunk of the wheat he harvested was sold to local traders at a discount to the government-promised , due to technical glitches in the state-run crop purchase portal. The result was a loss, running over ₹70,000. In the following month, short-duration moong beans, planted right after the winter wheat harvest, were damaged by a freak hailstorm. And now, the mother of all misfortunes is threatening to upend his plans—the monsoon rains are delayed and scanty.
The showers are critical for the premium that Chourey is preparing to plant in 23 acres. The nursery is ready in a corner plot; 20- to 25-day-old rice saplings will need to be transplanted onto the main field. The costs to see this aromatic rice through—a four-month period from seed to harvest—is close to ₹7,00,000. The expected income from 23 acres, net of all cost, is nearly ₹10,00,000.
So, the rain-fed Kharif is a high-stakes season for the farmer. A large rainfall deficit will leave a gaping hole in his annual income—one that will take many seasons to recoup.
The weather gods have not been kind. On some days, the sky is overcast. At times, it drizzles for a while. But for planting to begin, it must rain hard and for longer. Such that the thirst of the soil is quenched fully; the adjoining forests are soaked; rivulets and water bodies start filling up, and Narmada begins to swell.
“Your shoes must get stuck in the soil. You will have to yank them out with some mehnat… only then can I begin planting,” he explains.
His words dissolve into the expansive landscape of his village, Pathrauta. Miles of soft brown soil, ploughed to perfect flakiness by the churns of a noisy rotavator, is a dramatic contrast to the distant green of the adjoining hills. Strands of dark clouds float in the horizon; the breeze cools with the fading sunlight. A charming sight for a visitor, despite the sultriness hanging in the air. But not for a Chourey. Because another day has gone by and it did not rain.
Madhya Pradesh has seen a in June, about 33% lower than the normal or 50-year average—also known as the long period average (LPA). That’s better than the countrywide deficit of 40%. But the shortfall is way off the 8% deficit forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the month of June. Overall, IMD has forecast a 10% deficit for the June-September monsoon season for the entire country. If the forecast holds, rains will be .
In Narmadapuram district, the June rainfall deficit is 28%, better than both the state and India-wide shortfall. A farmer planting soybean and tur can manage with this deficit but those crops have nearly disappeared from the region. “I have been planting rice for the past two decades. You cannot switch suddenly because rice alters the soil,” he adds.
Chourey does have an electric pump to draw groundwater. But that only plays a supporting role. The water is just enough to raise a nursery for transplanted paddy. If the rainfall deficit stretches till mid-July, Chourey will cut the planting area by half—every acre of lost harvest means an expense of ₹30,000 down the drain.
‘Hi, hello’ rains
Rice, a water guzzler, is the primary Kharif crop in India occupying more than 37% of the planted area. Other crops like pulses, oilseeds and cotton need less water but these also have lower irrigation coverage. Which means prolonged dry spells can wither them out. For instance, about 70% of India’s rice area is under irrigation compared to a mere 14% for tur and 11% for soybean, as per the farm ministry. Tur (arhar) and soy are the primary pulse (legume) and oilseed crops, respectively, planted during the rain-fed Kharif season.
India is comfortably placed because of surplus, government-held rice stocks, thanks to consecutive years of excess rains in 2024 and 2025. That comfort is missing in pulses, oilseeds and cotton where it is dependent on imports. A severe countrywide rainfall deficit will hurt farm incomes, negatively impact wages and consumer demand in rural India, besides deepening India’s dependence on imported cooking oils and pulses.
Lower rainfall coupled with higher temperatures can push certain food prices higher, particularly for non-cereal crops like oilseeds, pulses and vegetables. Data from the consumer affairs department shows that the current retail price of cooking oils is 12-17% higher year-on-year, while tomato and onion prices are 23% and 11% higher, respectively.
“The below-normal monsoon rainfall expected amid El Niño conditions and the ongoing heatwaves can hurt agricultural production and exert pressure on food inflation,” Crisil Ratings stated in a note on 12 June.
is a warm phase of the Pacific where warmer-than-usual ocean waters negatively impact monsoon rains in South Asia, due to a weakening of trade winds. Since 1951, 12 out of 17 El Niño years have coincided with below-normal or deficient rains in India. El Niño is expected to be at its peak strength towards the end of 2026 and is forecast to continue until March of next year.
Scanty rains in June have already impacted Kharif sowing. Area planted under different crops is 23% lower year-on-year, shows data released by the agriculture ministry on 29 June. Expectedly, rain-fed crops such as oilseeds, cotton and pulses are most impacted with 30-50% lower planting so far. However, this gap is likely to reduce if the monsoon picks up pace in July. The month is the most critical since it contributes to over 32% of total rainfall during the four-month monsoon season.
The rainfall deficit in June was quite visible but farmers are hopeful of a recovery in July, said Amith Agarwal, CEO of StarAgri, a Mumbai-based commodity warehousing and collateral management firm. A recovery in rainfall by mid-July will aid Kharif planting but any further delay in sowing will mean a loss of yields.
The met office has forecast a 6% deficit in July compared to the 50-year average, and above-normal temperatures, in its monthly outlook issued on 30 June. If actual rains in July are in line with the forecast, it would be a remarkable recovery because the rainfall deficit in June is 40%.
The impact of a deficient monsoon may also be felt in the Rabi or winter crop season (planting for which will begin in November), cautions Agarwal. Planting of winter crops like wheat, chickpeas and mustard is dependent on residual moisture in the soil which is as critical as irrigation support from water reservoirs.
“Soybean, cotton and tur remain the most weather-sensitive crops, with July rainfall crucial for acreage recovery,” notes a market intelligence report by StarAgri. It adds that a developing El Niño poses a potential risk to rainfall distribution during the second half of the monsoon season (August and September).
No wonder, farmers are wary; but they also tend to accept weather risks as a recurrent professional hazard. Hence the ability to poke fun at a looming disaster.
“So far the rains have been saying ‘hi, hello’ to us from the skies, and then disappearing,” jokes Irfan Jafri, a farmer and farm union leader from Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh. The next two-to-three weeks will be a make-or-break period, he adds.
Alert 111
Around 315 districts across India are potentially impacted by weak monsoon, agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on 23 June. Of these, 111 districts with poor irrigation coverage are designated as high-priority. The government has drawn out contingency plans which involve alternative and short-duration crops that need less water to grow.
“There is no need to panic… the challenge posed by El Niño can be converted into an opportunity where water conservation, crop diversification, scientific advisories and social security schemes together provide a protective shield for farmers,” the minister said.
Plan B and C
Last week, this reporter met a motley group of farmers from Shahpur village in Raisen district, adjoining Bhopal. Most said they switched from soybean and tur to Basmati rice about a decade back. Raisen is now home to multiple processing mills which deal in premium rice varieties and exports.
Farmers said they have already planted nurseries and a delay in transplanting will lead to a drop in yields. They also contend that despite a government advisory to plant short-duration common-grade paddy varieties, they will stick to premium Basmati which fetches a higher price in the market.
Farmers also complained that subsidised fertilisers like urea and DAP (di-ammonium phosphate) are not available easily—a fallout of the war in West Asia which choked nutrient and energy supplies. Both urea and DAP are a must for rice, and farmers fear they will have to buy a part of the requirement by paying a premium in the black market.
“My nursery is already 25-days old. This is the right time to transplant saplings on the main field. But rains are absent,” says Narayan Singh who farms on a 15-acre plot in Raisen. With each day of delay in planting, the yield loss will accumulate. A two-week delay can lower Basmati yields from 17 quintals per acre to less than 12 quintals, Singh adds.
The world of Jaimal Barela, a tribal farmer from Sehore district, is miles away from the relatively prosperous rice growers of Raisen. For as long as he can remember, Barela has been planting local maize varieties on an undulating patch of stony land, adjacent to a forest. The four-acre plot is entirely dependent on rains. Last year, Barela spent a minor fortune, about ₹70,000, to dig a giant well on a corner of the farm to water the winter crop of wheat and chana. Despite the lack of rains, he has completed planting of corn and tur dal on the edges of the plot for home consumption.
The corn has sprouted but Barela is not sure it will survive. The well is almost empty. “If it does not rain in the coming weeks, the corn will die,” he says, matter-of-factly. And with a failed crop he will lose an investment of ₹20,000 spent on land preparation, seed and fertilizer costs.
So, what is his Plan B? “Dehadi-majdoori,” he says, meaning, he will look for casual work on day wages. There’s a Plan C too. His 19-year-old son, Arun Barela, will likely migrate to a distant factory town with his newly-wed wife.
The junior Barela knows the drill. Following his marriage last year, he visited Morbi in Gujarat and worked at a synthetic textile factory. The young couple managed to save ₹25,000 in those three months, after paying for rent, groceries and transport.
A failed monsoon will push them out of the village, again.