New Delhi: Global shipping freight rates are likely to remain elevated for the next few months following the easing of restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as recovering trade flows and the onset of the peak shipping season drive strong demand for tankers, containers and cargo vessels, keeping vessel capacity tight, industry executives and analysts said.
Freight rates more than doubled after the outbreak of , as security concerns slashed vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—through which about a fifth of global energy trade passes—to just 10% of pre-conflict levels.
As on 25 June, the freight rate of a 40-ft container stood at $4,166, according to the Drewry World Container Index’s latest fortnightly update, compared to $1,899 on 26 February 2026, two days before the war erupted.
Anil Devli, chief executive officer, Indian National Shipowners’ Association (INSA), said freight rates are likely to remain high at least for the next two-three months. “There is significant demand for ships, tankers and containers after the opening up of the Strait of Hormuz for trade across commodities, mostly for energy products,” Devli said.
The Baltic Dry Index, a benchmark for dry bulk shipping rates, has eased from wartime highs but remains about 19% above its pre-war level, indicating that vessel demand continues to outpace available capacity.
A recent outlook by Drewry said congestion at key Asian and European hubs continues to limit vessel availability, while strong cargo demand is sustaining tight capacity across major trade lanes.
“As a result, carriers are successfully implementing surcharges, including higher FAK (freight all kinds) levels and PSS (peak season surcharge), creating upward pressure on spot rates. Shippers are likely to face continued space constraints and should anticipate further short-term volatility in pricing,” it said.
In response to emailed queries from Mint, a spokesperson for the global container and shipping major Hapag-Lloyd noted that container demand is set to increase going forward.
“When we look at volumes and also if we look at demand, that still looks strong. We don’t see any real softening in demand for cargo at this point, and when we talk to customers, most of them expect a pretty decent peak season,” the spokesperson said.
The global shipping peak season runs from July to December, and typically sees increases in both shipping volumes and freight rates as retailers build inventories ahead of major shopping events and year-end holidays across different countries.
On the outlook for container availability, the Hapag Lloyd spokesperson said, “We expect capacity growth and demand growth to remain broadly aligned. That should support stable equipment availability overall. Of course, localized shortages can still occur from time to time due to operational disruptions, but we are well prepared to actively manage our equipment flows across the network.”
Queries emailed to global shipping and container companies—Maersk, Mitsui OSK Lines, and CMA CGM—and Shipping Corp. of India remained unanswered till press time.
Benjamin Tang, director and global head of liquid bulk and commodities at sea at S&P Global Energy Global, noted that while sentiment has improved following the signing of the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, the situation remains fluid.
“Recent developments , with diplomatic progress raising the prospect of a phased reopening of the strait,” Tang said, adding that uncertainty persists around enforcement conditions, access rules, and how quickly normal shipping activity can resume.
“Even as sentiment improves, the operational complexity of restoring flows through the narrow maritime corridor is expected to weigh on market participants in the near term,” Tang said.
According to the Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker, a joint project by AXSMarine and the World Trade Organization, disruption in the strait remained severe across all four indicators—crude, liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, and agricultural commodities—in June.
“Outbound shipments of crude oil, LNG, and fertilizer-related cargoes were still exceptionally low, with little sign of a sustained recovery,” it said. “Although a small number of AIS-traceable vessel movements were recorded (in April) after the initial collapse, these were isolated cases and did not alter the overall picture.”
According to the tracker, outbound crude shipments through the waterway collapsed in early March after the strait’s closure. While flows in February were broadly in line with the 2025 average, cargoes that had already been loaded were unable to leave the Persian Gulf once restrictions took effect.
Data from S&P Global showed that 78 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on 24 June—the highest daily count since the conflict began and equivalent to 57% of pre-conflict volumes.
Anticipated higher demand for energy products including oil, gas and LPG, and continued volatility in the region are also expected to keep the demand for tankers and vessels elevated.
The outlook is significant for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, which meets about 90% of its crude oil requirement through imports. Sustained high freight rates could keep import costs elevated for refiners.
According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (Opec) latest outlook, long-term oil demand growth across key markets like India and other Asian countries, Africa and Latin America is set to increase by 25.2 million barrels per day (bpd) between 2025 and 2050, with India alone adding 8.1 million bpd.