Tin prices are likely to be elevated this year on resilient demand from manufacturing, semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI)-related sectors
AI capex for 2026 is estimated at $785 billion, amid strong demand for data centres and higher costs related to investments into GPUs, CPUs and memory chips, said research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
Demand for tin is mixed, with resilient manufacturing activity and semiconductor and AI-related demand contrasting with weakness in traditional end-use sectors and the slowdown in China’s PV sector, said Tom Langston, Senior Market Analyst with the International Tin Association (ITA).
Tin prices fluctuated at high levels as demand from the soldering industry was limited, said Chinese commodity data group SunSirs.
Price outlook
Tin prices soared to a record high of $59,040 a tonne in June. They have now retreated to $55,030 a tonne. Tin has gained over 35 per cent year-to-date.
BMI said: “We have revised up our annual average tin price forecast for 2026 to $51,500/tonne from $49,000/tonne as prices remain on a pedestal since the start of the surge in AI capex that has resulted in a sharp rise in demand for tin from the semiconductor industry.”
BMI expects prices to remain elevated in 2026, with strong investor sentiment and continued supply shortages. The fourth quarter will likely see some moderation in prices, though, as supply issues moderate slightly and AI capex growth decelerates.
Langston said tin prices have lost some momentum correcting from the $56,000–57,000/t range, which has emerged as an important area of technical resistance this year.
Constrained supply
“Macroeconomic headwinds have reasserted themselves amid hawkish signals from Jackson Hole last week and renewed US-Iran hostilities. Speculative enthusiasm has also cooled, particularly in China, where SHFE (Shanghai Financial Exchange) open interest has now fallen for three consecutive weeks,” he said.
SunSirs said trading volume and open interest in SHFE tin declined in August as market enthusiasm cooled, with bulls and bears engaging in a tug-of-war.
BMI said supplies in the market will remain constrained this year, though there could be some stabilisation in the fourth quarter.
“In the main, Indonesian tin exports have started to normalise since Q2 2026, after declining in 2024 and 2025 … Yet, the recovery of exports has been slower than expected as of September 2026,” the research agency said.
Indonesian exports rebound
Langston said following the disruption in Q2, Indonesian exports rebounded strongly in July as more smelters received licence approvals.
“Nevertheless, cumulative shipments remain 15 per cent below last year, making any growth in global refined production this year increasingly unlikely,” he said.
Indonesia’s refined tin exports rose to 4,564.53 tonnes in July 2026, rising by 20.4 per cent year-on-year, said BMI.
The research agency said the International Tin Association announced in July that shipments from Myanmar’s Wa state will resume in the coming months, as several operators at Man Maw have reportedly secured three-year mining permits.
“Yet, there has been no substantial update on this up to the time of writing … We have adopted a ‘wait and see’ approach, as news of a resumption of tin mining at the Wa state have circulated markets for months without actually materialising,” it said.
Low stocks
Myanmar is the world’s third largest tin producer, and, according to USGS data, it is estimated to have the third largest reserves in the world, at 700,000 tonnes or 15 per cent of total global reserves, after China and Indonesia (800,000 tonnes and 720,000 tonnes respectively).
Outside of Indonesia and Myanmar, Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) suspended mining operations starting August 12, 2026, following drainage and retention pond damage caused by extreme heavy rainfall (about 60mm in one hour) on August 3.
BMU said global tin stocks remain low, and this exposes the tin market to bouts of volatility. As of September 2026, tin stocks remain low on the London Metal Exchange and SHFE.
However, Langston said the rapid drawdown in visible exchange stocks eased in August, while the wide contango in the LME cash-to-three-month spread suggests little shortage of tin in the near-term