Indian stock market: Indian equity markets ended the week on a cautious footing, extending their corrective trend as elevated crude oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over the global interest-rate outlook continued to dampen investor sentiment. While benchmark indices staged a recovery on Friday, breaking a four-session losing streak, the rebound remained subdued amid persistent foreign investor selling and concerns over rising energy costs.
For the week, the declined around 1.15% to close at 23,897.70, while the Sensex slipped nearly 1.0% to settle at 76,515.43. Both benchmarks registered their fourth consecutive weekly decline, highlighting the continued weakness in the broader market despite selective buying in individual stocks.
“The Nifty closed the week at 23,897, declining nearly 1%, while the Bank Nifty also remained under pressure and lost around 0.22% during the week. Sectorally, chemical and banking stocks were among the better-performing segments, gaining approximately 1–3%, while overall market sentiment remained cautious amid persistent global uncertainties and elevated crude oil prices,” said Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi.
Ganesh Dongre’s market outlook for next week
According to Dongre, from a geopolitical perspective, US–Iran tensions and movements in Brent crude oil prices will remain key factors to watch in the coming week. Renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude towards the $95–$96 per barrel zone, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supplies.
“As India is highly dependent on crude oil imports, a sustained rise in oil prices could increase inflationary pressures, widen the import bill and put pressure on corporate margins and the broader equity market. Conversely, any meaningful de-escalation between the US and Iran could result in some cooling of crude prices and provide relief to global risk sentiment.
Dongre further explained that markets are now likely to focus closely on upcoming US PPI and CPI inflation data, which could have a significant impact on expectations regarding the Fed’s September policy decision. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy, potentially putting pressure on global equities and emerging-market fund flows.
Nifty 50
On the outlook, Dongre said that from the derivatives perspective, positioning suggests a relatively defined trading range for the Nifty. On the Put side, the highest Put OI is concentrated around 23,800, followed by 23,500, while on the Call side, significant Call OI is visible around 24,000, followed by 24,200. This positioning suggests that the Nifty could remain range-bound between 23,800 and 24,200 in the near term. However, a decisive break on either side of this range could trigger a sharper directional move.
“From a technical and trading perspective, we continue to favour a buy-on-dips strategy, as the recent corrective phase has already taken place and the PCR around 0.90 suggests that the market is not yet showing an excessively bullish positioning. The immediate support zone is placed around 23,900–23,800, while the broader medium-term support remains around 23,500–23,600. On the upside, 24,200–24,300 remains the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above 24,300 would improve the short-term technical setup and increase the possibility of a move towards higher levels,” he added.
Bank Nifty
On the Bank Nifty outlook, he said that the index closed at 57,369 and continued to trade within a broader consolidation range. Technically, the index continues to maintain a constructive medium-term structure and remains comfortably above its important long-term EMA support near 56,600. The 57,000 level remains an important psychological support, while the broader support zone is placed around 56,000–56,300. On the upside, 58,000–58,500 remains the crucial resistance zone. A decisive and sustained breakout above 58,500 would strengthen the bullish setup and could open the way towards 60,000. Until such a breakout occurs, Bank Nifty is likely to remain in a consolidation phase.
“Overall, despite the recent profit booking and four consecutive weeks of weakness, both Nifty and Bank Nifty continue to maintain a constructive medium-term structure. The current decline appears more like a phase of consolidation and digestion following the earlier rally rather than a confirmed structural trend reversal. However, elevated crude prices, US–Iran tensions, rising US bond yields and upcoming US inflation data could keep volatility elevated in the near term. Therefore, a *buy-on-dips approach remains preferable*, but traders should maintain appropriate risk management,” said Dongre.
Weekly stocks to buy or sell
NBCC (India): Buy at ₹87, target price of ₹95, stop loss of ₹83.
Multi Commodity Exchange Of India (MCX): Buy at ₹3275, target price of ₹3450, stop loss of ₹3220.
Tata Steel: Buy at ₹188, target price of ₹198, stop loss of ₹182.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.