Geopolitics jitters drag Nifty below 24,000; Rupee slips on month-end Dollar demand

as escalating tensions in West Asia rattled investor confidence, sending the benchmark Nifty 50 below the psychologically critical 24,000 mark for the first time in recent sessions.

Profit booking in heavyweights across automobiles, IT and banking compounded the pressure, while a spike in market volatility signalled that traders are far from comfortable with the fragile geopolitical backdrop.

settled at 23,946.25, down 109.75 points or 0.46 per cent, while the closed at 76,728.37, shedding 372.10 points or 0.48 per cent. India VIX climbed nearly 4.5 per cent, reflecting heightened near-term anxiety among market participants.

“Persistent selling in heavyweight stocks across sectors kept the undertone negative throughout the day,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research at Religare Broking.

The weekend brought fresh geopolitical shocks.

The US and Iran exchanged attacks over the Strait of Hormuz before agreeing to pause hostilities and resume talks, but markets remained unconvinced about the durability of any deal.



Israel’s renewed strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon added another layer of regional uncertainty, keeping risk appetite firmly in check.

Crude oil, which had seen some relief last week, edged back up near the $70-per-barrel mark internationally, while domestic crude futures gained over 1.5 per cent to trade above ₹6,650, raising fresh concerns over India’s import bill and inflation trajectory.

Sector performance was sharply divergent. Nifty Auto bore the brunt of the selloff, declining more than 2 per cent, while IT and cement stocks also dragged.

Defensives held their ground, with pharma, healthcare and metals each gaining close to 1 per cent, supported by earnings visibility and inelastic demand. The broader market mirrored the weakness, with the Nifty Midcap 100 falling 0.37 per cent and the Smallcap 100 declining 0.62 per cent.

, pressured by month-end dollar demand, elevated crude prices and a broadly risk-off tone in global markets.

The currency’s near-term bias leans toward mild weakness, though analysts note that the 84.95 level remains a key support, with the 84 mark likely to attract buying interest if the slide deepens.

Gold faced selling pressure as prices encountered resistance near $4,100 on COMEX and around ₹1,45,500 on MCX. A firmer dollar and expectations of sustained higher interest rates diminished bullion’s appeal, while central bank buying has also moderated as markets re-evaluate the global rate outlook.

Gold is expected to trade in the ₹1,40,500–1,45,500 range in the near term, with rallies likely to face headwinds unless upcoming US jobs data — ADP Employment Change, Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment figures — delivers a dollar-softening surprise.

On the domestic data front, India’s Index of Industrial Production rose 5.1 per cent year-on-year in May 2026, led by a 5.5 per cent expansion in manufacturing and a 9.9 per cent surge in electricity output, with capital goods recording standout growth of 12.9 per cent.

The government also completed a significant statistical overhaul, replacing the Wholesale Price Index with the Output Producer Price Index as the deflator for the new IIP series, a move aimed at improving the accuracy of real output measurement.

Looking ahead, market direction will hinge on how US-Iran negotiations in Qatar progress, the pace of the southwest monsoon, and a packed global data calendar.

Key releases this week include India’s industrial output, Eurozone inflation, UK GDP, and — most critically — the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which could reset expectations around Federal Reserve policy and either steady or further unsettle global risk sentiment.

With Q1FY27 earnings season approaching, investor attention is also turning to IT, banking and FMCG results, where margin pressure from supply constraints and a patchy monsoon is likely to be closely scrutinised.

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