Stock markets are likely to open lower on Thursday as investors turn cautious following fresh escalation in the Middle East conflict, a sharp rise in crude oil prices and stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data.
Early indicators pointed to a weak start for domestic equities. GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 23,069 at around 7:43 am, indicating that the Nifty 50 could open below Wednesday’s closing level of 23,214.95.
Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said that markets are expected to open on a mildly negative note, with GIFT Nifty indicating weak opening signals.
“Global sentiment remains cautious amid uncertainty surrounding key trade negotiations and mixed economic signals from major economies, while geopolitical developments and fluctuations in prices may keep investors watchful and contribute to near-term market volatility,” he said.
The cautious mood across global markets came after the United States launched fresh strikes against multiple targets in Iran on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump also warned of more attacks if a peace agreement was not reached.
The rising tensions pushed Brent crude prices up 1.1% to $94 per barrel, while broader Asian equities slipped 0.4% as investors moved away from riskier assets.
The Iran war, now in its fourth month, has become a key concern for global investors due to its impact on energy prices and inflation.
India, which is the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, remains vulnerable to a sustained rise in crude oil prices as higher energy costs can increase inflation and affect economic growth.
Adding to concerns, fresh data from the United States showed consumer inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in May, mainly due to a surge in energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
The data has strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period, potentially extending into 2027. Higher US interest rates generally reduce the appeal of emerging markets like India for foreign investors.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued to pull money out of Indian equities amid global uncertainty.
FPIs sold Indian shares worth Rs 2,124.98 crore on Wednesday, marking their ninth consecutive session of selling. They have withdrawn a record $30.4 billion from Indian equities so far in 2026.
However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to provide support to the market. On June 10, DIIs bought Indian equities worth Rs 3,124 crore, helping absorb foreign selling pressure.
Tailor noted that the Nifty closed 27.15 points lower, or 0.12%, at 23,214.95 on June 10 after profit booking emerged near higher levels. The index touched an intraday high of 23,425.35 but failed to hold gains and slipped to an intraday low of 23,184.60.
Technically, he said the formation of a gravestone doji-like candlestick pattern indicates rejection at higher levels and reflects cautious sentiment among traders.
According to Tailor, immediate support for Nifty is placed between 23,000 and 23,050, while resistance is expected near the 23,450 to 23,500 zone.
Bank Nifty also ended lower on June 10, falling 94.20 points, or 0.17%, to close at 55,100.30.
The banking index touched an intraday high of 55,555.85 but failed to maintain momentum and ended close to its day’s low of 55,026.15.
Tailor said the formation of a gravestone doji pattern in Bank Nifty also shows rejection from higher levels and reflects short-term indecisiveness.
The immediate support zone for Bank Nifty is placed between 54,500 and 54,600, while resistance is seen around 55,500 to 55,600.
According to analysts, the market is currently at an important stage. Repeated failures near higher levels indicate that investors are not showing strong confidence in pushing indices significantly higher.
Persistent foreign selling and weak participation from broader markets may keep sentiment under pressure in the short term.
However, continued buying by domestic institutional investors and stability around key support levels could help prevent a sharp decline.
A clear move above resistance or below support zones is likely to determine the next major direction for Indian markets.
(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)